{"id":237577,"date":"2026-01-20T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237577"},"modified":"2026-01-21T03:16:58","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T08:16:58","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-january-19-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-january-19-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of January 19, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline\/core CPI rose 2.7%\/2.6% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales rose 0.6% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumer spending<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In a bid to lower mortgage rates, President Trump recently directed two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to purchase $200bn worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). While the details of these purchases remain in flux, the announcement helped 30-year mortgage rates slide to a 3-year low. However, multiple factors influence mortgage rates, most of which aren\u2019t impacted by MBS demand. These fundamental drivers may prove more consequential for the outlook for mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to their similar duration profiles, 30-year mortgage rates track closely with 10-year Treasury yields. In simple terms, 10-year yields can be decomposed into three drivers: real policy rates, inflation and a term premium that compensates investors for additional risks borne over longer investment horizons. Abnormally low policy rates, quantitative easing and subdued inflation suppressed these drivers in the decade after the GFC. However, that period was an anomaly. 10-year yields averaged 2.4% in the 2010s vs. 7.2% in the 25 years before the GFC. Additional rate cuts could lower mortgage rates but might prove counterproductive if they boost inflationary pressures. Even without further rate cuts, tariffs could lift inflation, while the term premium today is already low and could be pressured higher by fiscal concerns. Mortgage rates also reflect a mortgage spread, or the gap between mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields. This spread embeds origination and servicing costs and compensation for prepayment, liquidity and credit risks. This spread could compress as GSEs ramp up MBS purchases, even with the Fed reducing its holdings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All to say, increased MBS demand could modestly reduce mortgage rates, but not sustainably. Moreover, even at 6.1%, mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, and investors shouldn\u2019t expect them to return to the artificially low levels of the 2010s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-20-102314.png\" alt=\"30-Year fixed-rate mortgage rate drivers\" class=\"wp-image-237578 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-20-102314.png 1000w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-20-102314-700x282.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-20-102314-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-20-102314-768x310.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1000px; aspect-ratio: 1000\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Bloomberg, BLS, Freddie Mac, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management. Real federal funds rate = nominal federal funds<br>rate &#8211; y\/y headline inflation. 10-year Treasury term premium = 10-year<br>Treasury yield &#8211; nominal federal funds rate. Mortgage spread = 30-<br>year fixed-rate mortgage rate &#8211; 10-year Treasury yield.<br>Thought of the week: Source: Bloomberg, BLS, Freddie Mac, J.P.<br>Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted January 19, 2026\u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., January 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of January 19, 2026 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights that increased MBS purchases have lowered mortgage rates, but fundamental drivers limit further declines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":237578,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-237577","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of January 19, 2026<\/title>\n<meta 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