{"id":237457,"date":"2026-01-15T10:29:43","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T15:29:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237457"},"modified":"2026-01-16T05:40:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T10:40:26","slug":"chart-advisor-microsoft-breaks-below-key-fibonacci-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-microsoft-breaks-below-key-fibonacci-support\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Microsoft Breaks Below Key Fibonacci Support"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0David Keller, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Defense Over Offense Suggests Further Rotation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Microsoft Breaks Below Key Fibonacci Support<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Bearish Divergence Hints at Top for Delta Air Lines<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Defense Over Offense Suggests Further Rotation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By tracking a ratio of the Consumer Discretionary to Consumer Staples sectors, we can gauge whether investors are leaning into \u201cthings you want\u201d over \u201cthings you need.\u201d\u00a0 Consumers will tend to spend on discretionary purchases during bullish environments, yet they will often hold off when economic conditions are less favorable.\u00a0 But since consumers tend to always spend money on \u201cnecessities\u201d like cleaning products, personal care goods, and beverages, the Consumer Staples sector is more immune to economic shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The top panel shows this \u201coffense to defense\u201d ratio using the traditional market cap-weighted ETFs, while the bottom panel features the equal-weighted ETFs for the two consumer sectors.  While both ratios trended higher off the April 2025 market low, and the cap-weighted ratio continued higher into a late October peak, the equal-weighted version topped out in late September.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both ratios have turned lower this week, signaling a failed breakout above their 2025 tops.\u00a0 This recent pullback has now brought the long-term uptrend thesis into question, as both ratios are struggling to hold trendline support based on the April and November lows.\u00a0 If these ratios continue lower into late January, that could indicate a defensive rotation and suggest caution for investors going into February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft Breaks Below Key Fibonacci Support<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though a number of technology stocks remain near all-time highs, we\u2019ve observed a continued rotation from growth into value.\u00a0 We\u2019ve even noted dispersion within the Magnificent 7 stocks, with the strength in charts like Alphabet (GOOGL) providing an excellent counterpoint to the weakness in names like Microsoft (MSFT).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft\u2019s October peak ended up creating a clear double top pattern for the technology leader, followed soon after by a pullback to the 200-day moving average.  Using the April low and July high as a framework, we can see that the drop to the 200-day moving average in November also lined up with the 38.2% retracement level.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After bouncing off this \u201cconfluence of support\u201d in December, Microsoft appears to have finally broken down to a new swing low this week.  After Tuesday\u2019s initial break of support, the further down move on Wednesday served as a downside follow-through day which implies the downturn has not reached a climax.  A 61.8% retracement would mean a move down to around $425, representing a 24% loss from the July 2025 all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bearish Divergence Hints at Top for Delta Air Lines<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported earnings on Tuesday, the stock broke below the 21-day exponential moving average.\u00a0 But before the airline dropped down through this initial stop loss level, a bearish momentum divergence served as an early warning of a potential downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DAL has experienced a series of bearish momentum divergences at major tops over the last 18 months, formed by higher price action combined with lower peaks in price momentum.  Short-term tops in December 2024 and September 2025 were both preceded by this ominous technical configuration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the recent signal lead to another short-term pullback, or instead will we see a more significant bear phase?  The RSI itself could serve as an important way of validating the length and depth of a new downtrend.  After those previous divergences, the RSI held the 40 level on pullbacks.  The more painful corrective phase in Q1 2025 saw the RSI push below 40 soon after the peak, serving to confirm a more extended bearish move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 15th January 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0David Keller, CMT 1\/ Defense Over Offense Suggests Further Rotation 2\/ Microsoft Breaks Below Key Fibonacci Support 3\/ Bearish Divergence Hints at Top for Delta Air Lines Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":237459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[18672,3324,567,158,1283],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-237457","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-200-day-moving-average","17":"tag-dal","18":"tag-googl","19":"tag-msft","20":"tag-xly","21":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Microsoft Breaks Below Key Fibonacci 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