{"id":237448,"date":"2026-01-15T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237448"},"modified":"2026-01-16T05:56:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T10:56:16","slug":"defense-stocks-surge-as-the-u-s-reasserts-power-in-latin-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/defense-stocks-surge-as-the-u-s-reasserts-power-in-latin-america\/","title":{"rendered":"Defense Stocks Surge as the U.S. Reasserts Power in Latin America"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What happened in Venezuela on January 3 may turn out to be the most consequential energy and geopolitical event of the decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a swift, coordinated operation that stunned the world, U.S. forces captured Venezuela\u2019s longtime socialist dictator, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nearly just as swiftly, President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. will not only rebuild the country\u2019s devastated oil infrastructure but also control all crude exports indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To some, this might sound like neo-colonialism. But to investors, it could be an opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-u-s-reasserts-its-sphere-of-influence\"><strong>The U.S. Reasserts Its Sphere of Influence<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As I talked about in a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/the-diesel-shock-no-one-is-talking-about\/\">previous post,<\/a>&nbsp;what we\u2019re seeing unfold is the rebirth of the Monroe Doctrine, the 200-year-old idea that the U.S. is the dominant force in the Western Hemisphere and that European powers shouldn\u2019t interfere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 21st-century iteration of the Monroe Doctrine\u2014nicknamed the Trump Corollary, or the \u201cDonroe Doctrine\u201d\u2014is similarly meant as a warning to China and Russia that Latin America\u2019s vast resources, including oil, is off-limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Trump\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/08\/us\/politics\/trump-interview-venezuela.html\">own words,<\/a>&nbsp;\u201cWe\u2019re going to be using [Venezuela\u2019s] oil, and we\u2019re going to be taking oil.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The administration has already announced it will market and sell 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, with proceeds&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/business\/energy\/trump-venezuela-oil-companies-reimburse-rcna252434\">controlled directly by Trump.<\/a>&nbsp;Energy Secretary Chris Wright went further, confirming that the U.S. will be selling Venezuelan oil \u201cindefinitely,\u201d starting with backed-up storage barrels and expanding future production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China is Venezuela\u2019s largest oil customer, buying 80% of the exports, and Latin America\u2019s largest trading partner since 2020. It\u2019s invested heavily across the region, in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-a-trojan-horse\/\">ports, telecom, power grids and more.<\/a>&nbsp;With 37 port projects under its belt and $13 billion in credit lines pledged to the region, Beijing may not give up Latin America so easily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/10\/COMM-china-trading-partner-10102025.png\" alt=\"China Has Been Central &amp; South America's Largest Trading Partner Since 2020\" class=\"wp-image-25734 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-venezuela-rich-in-resources-but-uninvestable\"><strong>Venezuela: Rich in Resources but\u2026 Uninvestable?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Some investors still don\u2019t realize just how resource-rich Venezuela is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The country holds over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, more than any other nation on the planet. That\u2019s nearly one-fifth of the world\u2019s total reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And yet today, Venezuela accounts for just 1% of global oil production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks to decades of socialism, corruption and mismanagement, Venezuela\u2019s oil infrastructure has crumbled. Output has plummeted from between 7 and 8 million barrels a day to under 1 million barrels today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/01\/COMM-venezuelas-oil-production-01092026.png\" alt=\"Venezuela's Oil Production Has Cratered Under Pres. Maduro\" class=\"wp-image-26112 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-reviving-venezuela-s-oil-won-t-be-cheap-or-easy\"><strong>Why Reviving Venezuela\u2019s Oil Won\u2019t Be Cheap or Easy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With Maduro out and Washington in charge, there\u2019s renewed optimism in Venezuela\u2019s oil industry\u2026 but also massive capital requirements. Energy consultancy firm Rystad estimates it will take as much as $110 billion in capex spending just to restore Venezuelan output to where it was 15 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That dollar amount is twice what all U.S. oil majors spent globally in 2024 alone, according to a CLSA report to investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This may be why Trump said the government would&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/business\/energy\/trump-venezuela-oil-companies-reimburse-rcna252434\">reimburse oil companies<\/a>&nbsp;for getting the country\u2019s oil operations \u201cup and running\u201d again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they\u2019ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue,\u201d the president told NBC News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ExxonMobil, for one, is hesitant to operate in a country that has twice seized its assets. During a recent roundtable between the Trump administration and oil executives, CEO Darren Woods told the president that he believed Venezuela was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/corporate.exxonmobil.com\/news\/news-releases\/2026\/our-perspective-regarding-the-situation-in-venezuela#Darrendeliveredthefollowingremarks\">\u201cunivestable\u201d<\/a>&nbsp;short of significant changes to the country\u2019s legal system and hydrocarbon laws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump, calling Woods\u2019s concerns \u201ccute,\u201d said he would be inclined to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/01\/12\/oil-trump-venezuela-exxon-mobil-darren-woods.html\">block Exxon<\/a>&nbsp;from doing business in Venezuela.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the money shows up, there\u2019s still the problem of manpower. Tens of thousands of skilled engineers and geologists have not only&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/06\/14\/world\/americas\/venezuela-oil-economy.html\">fled Venezuela<\/a>&nbsp;but stripped and\/or stole equipment, vehicles and copper wiring from the country\u2019s state-run oil company, Petr\u00f3leos de Venezuela. Much of Venezuela\u2019s oil is ultra-heavy crude, requiring special treatment and naphtha blending to be transported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-defense-and-energy-stocks-catch-a-bid\"><strong>Defense and Energy Stocks Catch a Bid<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these hurdles, markets rallied hard on the news of Maduro\u2019s removal. The best performing Dow Jones stock on Monday, January 5, was Chevron, surging as much as 10% in intraday trading but ending the day up around 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/01\/COMM-shares-of-chevron-surged-01092026.png\" alt=\"Shares of Chevron Surged Following the U.S. Operation in Venezuela\" class=\"wp-image-26113 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chevron\u2014currently the only U.S. major operating in Venezuela, exporting about&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/01\/05\/maduro-overthrow-could-pave-the-way-for-us-oil-companies-to-recover-venezuela-assets.html\">140,000 barrels a day<\/a>\u2014is reportedly negotiating with the U.S. for an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/chevron-talks-with-us-government-expanded-venezuela-license-sources-say-2026-01-07\/\">expanded license<\/a>&nbsp;to export more Venezuelan crude, and not just to U.S. refineries but to thirty-party buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European defense contractors also jumped on Monday, including Rheinmetall (+9.06%), Leonardo (+6.41%), BAE Systems (+5.10%) and Thales (+4.80%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. defense names followed suit: Northrop Grumman (+4.38%), General Dynamics (+3.54%), Lockheed (+2.92%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-final-takeaways\"><strong>Final Takeaways<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Venezuela\u2019s return to oil markets will likely increase global supply, putting downward pressure on crude prices: Bloomberg\u2019s Mike McGlone sees West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading in the $42 to $65-per-barrel range this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That may be bad for OPEC, but good for U.S. consumers and refiners, not to mention airlines and cargo ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From an investment point of view, I urge investors look at energy selectively. Names like Chevron may benefit from Venezuela\u2019s reopening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also think investors should consider staying overweight defense, for obvious reasons, especially when combined with news that a military takeover of Greenland&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/us-military-option-acquiring-greenland-white-house-official\/story?id=128960041\">isn\u2019t off the table.<\/a>&nbsp;What\u2019s more, Trump is actively pushing for the 2027 U.S. military budget to be raised to a mind-boggling&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/115855894695940909\">$1.5 trillion.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted January 12, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/defense-stocks-surge-as-the-u-s-reasserts-power-in-latin-america\/\">Defense Stocks Surge as the U.S. Reasserts Power in Latin America<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the links above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (12\/31\/2025):&nbsp;ExxonMobil Corp., General Dynamics Corp.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened in Venezuela on January 3 may turn out to be the most consequential energy and geopolitical event of the decade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":237182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":{"0":"post-237448","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-us-global-investors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Defense Stocks Surge as the U.S. Reasserts Power 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