{"id":237356,"date":"2026-01-13T12:52:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T17:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237356"},"modified":"2026-01-13T15:07:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T20:07:49","slug":"supreme-court-tariff-odds-at-28-prior-to-potential-ruling-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/supreme-court-tariff-odds-at-28-prior-to-potential-ruling-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Supreme Court Tariff Odds At 28% Prior To Potential Ruling Tomorrow: Jan. 13, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The probability of the Supreme Court upholding President Trump\u2019s tariffs is currently at 28%<\/a> following some notable swings in recent days that drove the chances up to 45% last Friday, Jan. 9. The lowest likelihood of the last 30 days, however, occurred on Jan. 3, when the chances hit a trough of 21%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Value In PPI \u201cYes\u201d at 2.5%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cYes\u201d at 2.5%<\/a> appears undervalued to me at just $0.35 as it relates to November\u2019s Producer Price Index, since September\u2019s report came in at 2.7% and the median forecast for tomorrow morning\u2019s print is for an unchanged reading. Against this backdrop though, the range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, with the 15 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll having estimates ranging from a minimum of 2.1% to a maximum of 2.8%. Still, the bar to come in at 2.6% or higher is quite low, I believe, and the \u201cYes\u201d at 2.5% shouldn\u2019t cost less than $0.55, in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 13, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The probability of the Supreme Court upholding President Trump\u2019s tariffs is currently at 28% following some notable swings in recent days that drove the chances up to 45% last Friday, Jan. 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