{"id":237299,"date":"2026-01-12T12:52:26","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T17:52:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237299"},"modified":"2026-01-12T13:15:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T18:15:23","slug":"fed-independence-factor-weighs-on-warshs-odds-cpi-expectations-for-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/fed-independence-factor-weighs-on-warshs-odds-cpi-expectations-for-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Independence Factor Weighs on Warsh\u2019s Odds, CPI Expectations for Tomorrow: Jan. 12, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

News that the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifted the odds in our prediction market as to who President Trump will nominate to lead the central bank next. Since Kevin Warsh is a former governor of the monetary policy institution, his probability dropped from 44% to 38% over the weekend, as he\u2019s potentially seen as a fellow that may defend Fed independence and at times stand at conflict with the head of state. Participants may believe that the other Kevin, meanwhile, Hasset, who has never maintained a political appointment at the Fed and is more distant as Director of the National Economic Council, has a stronger chance of securing the spot in light of the perception that the commander in chief is looking to increasingly influence the organization\u2019s decisions and could choose someone with a higher likelihood of considering his suggestions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CPI Estimates Are All Over the Place<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could come in significantly different than Wall Street\u2019s projections because of adverse impacts from the government shutdown which influenced how shelter was measured. The component is the heaviest weighting in the pivotal economic indicator at north of 40% and how it\u2019s handled in the upcoming print is a critical question that economists are carefully pondering. It\u2019s absolutely that development that has estimates sitting all over the place, with the 41 professional forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll at a minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 2.9%. This is rare for a gauge that is usually well telegraphed by prognosticators and has a narrower historical width amongst analysts. Meanwhile, our prediction market is expecting numbers around 2.7% for both headline and core. The \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.7%, that profit off of a result of 2.8% or higher, are at $0.26 for the former and $0.43 for the latter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 12, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

News that the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifted the odds in our prediction market as to who President Trump will nominate to lead the central bank next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-237299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-federal-reserve","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFed Independence Factor Weighs on 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