{"id":237229,"date":"2026-01-09T13:07:22","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T18:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237229"},"modified":"2026-01-09T15:25:47","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T20:25:47","slug":"unemployment-decline-takes-january-cut-off-the-table","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/unemployment-decline-takes-january-cut-off-the-table\/","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment Decline Takes January Cut Off the Table: Jan. 9, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The decline to a 4.4% unemployment rate in December accompanied with accelerating wage pressures as detailed in this morning\u2019s Jobs Report is strengthening the chances that the Fed will pause at its meeting this month. Reduced joblessness paired with faster expansions in paychecks are lessening the need for imminent monetary policy accommodation as investors look forward to future meetings for a move lower in the central bank\u2019s benchmark. Indeed, the 86% low as it relates to a steady Fed from Jan. 3, just six days ago, strengthened to a high of 97%<\/a> following the release of today\u2019s employment numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sentiment Revisions Are Historically Modest<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a very low chance that this morning\u2019s consumer sentiment print will be revised by +2.1 from 54 to 56.1 or higher when the final print is released two weeks from today. In the last 12 years, a revision of that magnitude has only happened a handful of times (please see chart below) and against that backdrop, the \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 56 is significantly undervalued at $0.49 in my view and should cost closer to $0.98.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 9, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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