{"id":237009,"date":"2026-01-07T11:53:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T16:53:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237009"},"modified":"2026-01-07T11:58:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T16:58:26","slug":"silicon-small-caps-and-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/silicon-small-caps-and-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Silicon, Small Caps, and Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tech leadership, small-cap momentum, and shifting investor sentiment took center stage as markets kicked off the new year. Nasdaq\u2019s Kevin Davitt joins Andrew Wilkinson to break down broadening market leadership, CES-driven tech trends, and what it all signals for investors moving forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Silicon, Small Caps, and Sentiment\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=dqnp3-1a1063c-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-339\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 339<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this Week&#8217;s Market Minute with me, Andrew Wilkinson.&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;my guest, Kevin Davitt,&nbsp;who&#8217;s&nbsp;the Head of Index Options Content at the Nasdaq. Kevin, happy New Year to you. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m&nbsp;doing very well and&nbsp;couldn&#8217;t&nbsp;be happier to spend it with you, Andrew. Thanks for having me back.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Excellent. Excellent. Okay,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;get straight to it.&nbsp;So&nbsp;the stock market, Kevin, got off to a storming start on Monday, with headlines connecting the removal and New York&nbsp;indictment&nbsp;of Venezuela&#8217;s President, Madura, and his wife as the catalyst. True or false,&nbsp;the stock market would&#8217;ve&nbsp;rallied anyway? Or put another way, why was Maduro&#8217;s&nbsp;indictment&nbsp;so good for small caps? Pick the bones out of it, Kevin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-0\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well,&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a loaded question with politics and markets, and that becomes muddy.&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;go with yes. Um, I like the ambivalence of the question, but from my perspective,&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;in a bull market, and January tends to lead the way.&nbsp;So&nbsp;I saw some research very recently that shows January is&nbsp;arguably the&nbsp;best month for Nasdaq 100 performance, going back to 1985 when the index was introduced. Um, it has been higher in&nbsp;the month of January 70%&nbsp;of the time, with an average gain of around two and a half percent\u2014nothing to sneeze at.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, January is often the largest month for 401k or IRA allocations around people that have bonuses. Um, the other standout months, for those that are interested, are May and November, with similar frequencies with respect to positive returns, but average is closer to 2% instead of two point a half. Your point about the small caps\u2014I would read that, uh, and a dynamic&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;been going on now for quite some time, is that breadth is improving. The rally really does seem to be broadening, and small caps have been playing along&nbsp;recently.Big&nbsp;picture,&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;too old to position myself against the U.S. economy or the Nasdaq&nbsp;100 in particular.&nbsp;We&#8217;re&nbsp;in a bull market. Investors&nbsp;aren&#8217;t&nbsp;concerned about Venezuela. They make up a super small proportion of the global energy markets. Narratives matter more, and the path of least resistance seems higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good. Good. All good points. Now, shares in banks and oil companies&nbsp;rose.&nbsp;Those of&nbsp;utility companies traded lower. Defense companies rallied,&nbsp;indicating&nbsp;a resurgence in geopolitical challenges, and cryptocurrencies rose, suggesting risk-on.&nbsp;It&#8217;s&nbsp;a confusing picture. How did technology shares start the week, Kevin?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-1\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So that is a good question. And when&nbsp;aren&#8217;t&nbsp;the markets confusing would be my sort of quick comeback there. But as of&nbsp;yesterday&#8217;s close\u2014and I focus appropriately on&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of mega-cap tech performance\u2014I would characterize it as mixed&nbsp;to&nbsp;weak. You mentioned that small caps have been playing along, the rally&#8217;s broadening.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;Apple has been under pressure.&nbsp;That&#8217;s&nbsp;sort of the&nbsp;leader on the downside, or the laggard\u2014shares lower like 3% to start the year. Amazon, on the other hand, has been&nbsp;ripping,&nbsp;up like 6% just&nbsp;this week. The semiconductors, which have been&nbsp;kind of the&nbsp;epicenter of so much of the narrative for the past couple of years, are mixed.&nbsp;So&nbsp;Broadcom, which got a lot of attention recently, slightly lower, but Micron, a name that has also gotten a lot of attention, up big yesterday. Your point about crypto\u2014it\u2019s&nbsp;sort of been chopping at the low end of its kind of one-year range recently. Um, I&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;make too much\u2014you&nbsp;can&#8217;t&nbsp;make too much\u2014about a thousand or $2,000 here and there in an asset&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;trading around a hundred thousand. Um, and going back to my lead point, I think the market broadly, or markets when you look across asset classes, are kind&nbsp;of by&nbsp;design confusing, and that presents opportunity and unique data sets. But I think that focusing on where your risk exists, as opposed to&nbsp;what&#8217;s&nbsp;shiny now, tends to be rewarded.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin, there was a potential big catalyst this week, and&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;probably still&nbsp;going on in Las Vegas, in terms of the Consumer Electronics Show. And&nbsp;I think you&nbsp;told me&nbsp;you&#8217;ve&nbsp;got a team positioned there.&nbsp;What&#8217;s&nbsp;coming out of there&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;impacting&nbsp;the market, and how is it&nbsp;impacting&nbsp;the market? You mentioned Micron there. The traditional Nvidia and other AI chip makers are not necessarily the leaders in response to this news, and it seems to be more, as you mentioned, Micron, Seagate, SanDisk, where flash memory demand is set to surge. What are you hearing coming out of the conference, and what does that excite your team?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-2\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;you framed that, I think, really well, and it speaks to our earlier points about the broadening narrative here, where it isn&#8217;t just Nvidia day after day.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hmm.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-3\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Uh, before I joined Nasdaq a couple of years ago, I had no idea how big a deal this Consumer Electronics Show was, and that&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a potentially market-moving event.&nbsp;Maybe that&#8217;s&nbsp;my fault.&nbsp;It&#8217;s kind of like a Super Bowl of sorts for the types of companies that do really drive the Nasdaq 100.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AMD news stood out for me, for one. Uh, I just finished a book that was primarily focused on Nvidia&#8217;s growth, and I&nbsp;didn&#8217;t&nbsp;know that Jensen&#8217;s first cousin&nbsp;is&nbsp;AMD&#8217;s CEO. What a great narrative that is. Um, AMD is the 15th-largest constituent in the Nasdaq 100. Lisa Su is their CEO, and she was talking about demand for global&nbsp;compute&nbsp;power and the infrastructure to support it. That has been going on for&nbsp;months and months. That capacity\u2014this was one of the points she made\u2014has&nbsp;expanded by&nbsp;a hundred times over the past three years. She said that capacity needs to grow by ten thousand times to meet demand.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think some of the names that you mentioned reacting to this are reflective of that growth in demand. Um, and they highlighted their next GPU, which is supposed to go head-to-head with Nvidia. Nvidia has also been highlighted, the largest constituent in the Nasdaq 100, which I care about. They made&nbsp;reference&nbsp;to an AI data center processor named Rubin. Uh,&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;supposed to be way more powerful than the Blackwell chip. They also highlighted reductions in inference costs and the number of GPUs necessary to train these big models. And&nbsp;I think my understanding&nbsp;is that CES is now the premier venue for companies to&nbsp;showcase&nbsp;their innovation, and more specifically to Nasdaq. Alongside Invesco, our index business sponsors a research panel where we interview some of these Nasdaq 100 companies on a whole bunch of topics that go back to that kind of core identity of innovators.&nbsp;So, huge week for tech and Nasdaq in particular.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think from a&nbsp;bull&#8217;s&nbsp;perspective,&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;very encouraging that this does not seem to be a marathon.&nbsp;It seems that leadership&nbsp;keeps getting the baton, keeps getting passed on to a new area, a different sector every time.&nbsp;It&#8217;s&nbsp;very constructive for the market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-4\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I agree with you there, and I like the analogy too\u2014the baton passing. And there&nbsp;hasn&#8217;t&nbsp;been a fumble on that pass-off to date.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. Kevin Davitt, head of Index Options Content at the Nasdaq, thank you for joining me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-5\">Kevin Davitt&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks for having me, Andrew.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\">Andrew Wilkinson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right. And to the audience, if you enjoyed today&#8217;s episode, please&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;forget to subscribe and like wherever you download your podcasts from.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tech leadership, small-cap momentum, and shifting investor sentiment took center stage as markets kicked off the new year. Nasdaq\u2019s Kevin Davitt joins Andrew Wilkinson to break down broadening market leadership, CES-driven tech trends, and what it all signals for investors moving forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":237010,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[20993,20995,20992,20994,1840,18080,3029,1383,1081,11370,3647,11838,4919],"contributors-categories":[13576,13756],"class_list":{"0":"post-237009","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-ai-chip-makers","10":"tag-bull-market-trends","11":"tag-ces-2026","12":"tag-consumer-electronics-show","13":"tag-equity-markets","14":"tag-investor-psychology","15":"tag-market-leadership","16":"tag-market-sentiment","17":"tag-nasdaq-100","18":"tag-semiconductor-stocks","19":"tag-small-cap-stocks","20":"tag-stock-market-outlook","21":"tag-tech-stocks","22":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","23":"contributors-categories-nasdaq"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Silicon, Small Caps, and Sentiment | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tech leadership, small-cap momentum, and shifting investor sentiment took center stage as markets kicked off the new year. 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