{"id":236917,"date":"2026-01-06T12:51:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T17:51:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236917"},"modified":"2026-01-06T14:58:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T19:58:14","slug":"election-trading-sees-higher-volumes-following-us-action-in-caracas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/election-trading-sees-higher-volumes-following-us-action-in-caracas\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Trading Sees Higher Volumes Following US Action in Caracas: Jan. 6, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 2.5 million contracts transacted yesterday and so far today saw broad activity, including a single block trade of 10k instruments last night at 8:56 PM ET that concern whether Secretary of State and former Florida Senator Marco Rubio will win the Republican Party\u2019s presidential nomination in 2028; he\u2019s gone from 2% to as high as 16%<\/a> in just seven days. But the other side of the political aisle experienced some volumes too, with California Governor Gavin Newsom holding onto the lead for the nomination at 33%<\/a>. Furthermore, the chances of the Democrats obtaining majority control of the House of Representatives is at 74%<\/a>, and that question saw over 10k contracts traded yesterday. The recent rise in election trading is likely a response to the US\u2019s military removing and arresting Venezuelan communist dictator Nicolas Maduro last weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Familiar Contracts Traded Too<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Participants also gravitated to their everyday favorites, including daily high temperatures across major US cities, instruments tied to the price performances of the S&P 500<\/a>, the Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/a>, the Nasdaq 100<\/a>, Bitcoin<\/a>, Ethereum<\/a> and the US Dollar\/Japanese Yen<\/a> currency pair. Finally, the upcoming Fed decision also caught bids, as there\u2019s an 89% <\/a>likelihood that the central bank will hold rates steady at the end of this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 6, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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