{"id":236673,"date":"2025-12-30T12:56:26","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T17:56:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236673"},"modified":"2025-12-30T16:12:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T21:12:08","slug":"top-fed-chair-candidate-odds-narrow-again-with-hasset-at-43-and-warsh-at-35","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/top-fed-chair-candidate-odds-narrow-again-with-hasset-at-43-and-warsh-at-35\/","title":{"rendered":"Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35%: Dec. 30, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has been making a comeback in his probabilities of being nominated as the central bank’s leader<\/a> in recent days rising to as high as 38% yesterday from as low as 24% last week. Warsh\u2019s gain has trimmed National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett\u2019s lead significantly with his chances now at 43%, while current central banking official Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are at 9% and 2%, respectively. President Trump said yesterday that the announcement will arrive sometime next month while refraining from stating whether he favors either of the top two contenders. There are approximately 70k contracts open that are tied to the selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Participants Gearing Up for January Fed Decision<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s trading action on ForecastEx featured building engagement in the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision next month, as participants are increasingly sure that the central bank will pause with an 89%<\/a> degree of certainty. Earlier in December, the chances of an unchanged benchmark in January were a lot lower at 64%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Singapore SORA Combo Trade Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) has run between 1% and 1.5% for 17 consecutive days, averaging 1.16% for the month of December amidst a 7-day mean of 1.29%. Against this backdrop the \u201cYes\/No\u201d combo at 1%<\/a> and 1.5%<\/a> appears undervalued to me at an overall cost of $1.74, featuring a maximum total loss of $0.74.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes\u201d at 2.2% Looks Modestly Undervalued<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index has exceeded 2.2% for four consecutive weeks and is poised to come in north of that level again tomorrow in my opinion. Activity has been firm lately and the \u201cYes\u201d at $0.65<\/a> isn\u2019t hugely undervalued, but still offers a decent opportunity since the price should be closer to $0.75.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Claims Expected to Come in Near 220K<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Wall Street expects initial unemployment claims to come in 220k tomorrow and our participants are right near there. Indeed, there\u2019s an approximate 59%<\/a> chance of a number arriving north of that level and a 39% probability of a figure coming in at 220k or under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 30, 2025.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has been making a comeback in his probabilities of being nominated as the central bank’s leader in recent days, rising to as high as 38% yesterday from as low as 24% last 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/federal-reserve-system-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=236673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/184479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=236673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=236673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=236673"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=236673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}