{"id":236632,"date":"2025-12-29T13:00:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T18:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236632"},"modified":"2025-12-30T04:33:38","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T09:33:38","slug":"look-for-the-silver-lining","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/look-for-the-silver-lining\/","title":{"rendered":"Look For the Silver Lining"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>(<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/NBaHc679fJw\">Today\u2019s musical accompaniment<\/a> is over 100 years old)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last night I got an alert that silver futures had traded above $80 per ounce.&nbsp; Knowing silver\u2019s recent parabolic move, I turned to my wife and said, \u201cif you have any silver jewelry that you no longer wear, sell it.\u201d&nbsp; Well, that wasn\u2019t quick enough.&nbsp; With the expiration of the December contract occurring today, we had a startling intraday reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is this enough volatility for you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-month-silver-futures-december-red-green-hourly-candles-january-blue-line\"><strong><em>1-Month Silver Futures, December (red\/green hourly candles), January (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"894\" height=\"517\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-78.png\" alt=\"1-Month Silver Futures, December (red\/green hourly candles), January (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-236634 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-78.png 894w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-78-700x405.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-78-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-78-768x444.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 894px) 100vw, 894px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 894px; aspect-ratio: 894\/517;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the sort of move that only seems to occur in the movies<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>, but it has been known to occur in expiring futures \u2013 famously on April 20, 2020, when the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=33ffcfa5db59a89b26ee21e530493e035f0eb6a55cb3d73b7da1427b04e46f05JmltdHM9MTc2Njk2NjQwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=1e9ffdd7-b3c6-62a0-1d01-eb51b2506341&amp;psq=when+did+oil+futures+go+negative&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9jb21leGxpdmUub3JnLzIwMjUvMDQvMjAvNS15ZWFycy1hbm5pdmVyc2FyeS1vZi1uZWdhdGl2ZS1jcnVkZS1vaWwtcHJpY2VzLw\">expiring oil contract went negative<\/a>.&nbsp; &nbsp;While most futures expire without incident, supply\/demand dynamics can get particularly stressed around expirations and price limits in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/education\/courses\/introduction-to-futures\/price-limits-price-banding.html\">physically deliverable contracts are often removed<\/a> on those days, allowing for much wilder than normal moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 1-month chart above shows a steep ascent, but a longer-term chart makes it apparent that the recent rise has been parabolic, not linear.&nbsp; We have frequently asserted that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/parabolic-charts-mean-someone-is-in-pain\/?query=parabolic&amp;query_id=zYbVRrcUSkSEoioIRD7ujQ&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=zYbVRrcUSkSEoioIRD7ujQ\">parabolic charts mean someone is in pain<\/a>, noting that<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Parabolic uptrends imply that some group is desperate for the commodity or security in question.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>and<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Parabolic uptrends are almost always unsustainable for long periods of time and tend to reverse abruptly and sharply.&nbsp; The question is when.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the case of silver, a combination of supply concerns and incredible demand from momentum-loving traders sent the commodity on a wild ride higher before the inevitable reversal.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-month-silver-futures-december-red-green-daily-candles-january-blue-line\"><strong><em>6-Month Silver Futures, December (red\/green daily candles), January (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"518\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-76.png\" alt=\"6-Month Silver Futures, December (red\/green daily candles), January (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-236635 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-76.png 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-76-700x403.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-76-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-76-768x442.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/518;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the recent move can be attributed to the overall rise in precious metals, but as the chart below shows, silver and gold futures moved in rough lockstep until mid-October, after which silver zoomed ahead.&nbsp; Note also that silver\u2019s overnight plunge turned around after just about touching its 20-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-month-december-futures-silver-red-green-daily-candles-with-20-day-moving-average-purple-line-gold-blue-line\"><strong><em>6-Month December Futures, Silver (red\/green daily candles) with 20-Day Moving Average (purple line), Gold (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"898\" height=\"514\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-79.png\" alt=\"6-Month December Futures, Silver (red\/green daily candles) with 20-Day Moving Average (purple line), Gold (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-236637 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-79.png 898w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-79-700x401.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-79-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-79-768x440.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 898px) 100vw, 898px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 898px; aspect-ratio: 898\/514;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The comparisons to \u201cdigital gold\u201d, aka bitcoin, are inevitable.&nbsp; We saw bitcoin make a run at $90,000 while silver was ripping higher overnight, but it has since settled back to the $87K range that has prevailed in recent days.&nbsp; In a year that was supposed to feature cryptocurrencies, bitcoin has been a disappointment after failing to sustain its run to $125K.&nbsp; Meanwhile, metals moved steadily higher throughout the year, vastly outperforming crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-year-december-silver-red-green-daily-candles-december-gold-yellow-line-bitcoin-blue-line\"><strong><em>1-Year, December Silver (red\/green daily candles), December Gold (yellow line), Bitcoin (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"893\" height=\"514\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-75.png\" alt=\"1-Year, December Silver (red\/green daily candles), December Gold (yellow line), Bitcoin (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-236633 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-75.png 893w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-75-700x403.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-75-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-75-768x442.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 893px) 100vw, 893px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 893px; aspect-ratio: 893\/514;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, on a two-year basis, gold and bitcoin have performed almost identically, though of course with moves of vastly different timing.&nbsp; Bitcoin still retains much of its pre-election runup, if not its post-inauguration move.&nbsp; Gold has moved higher at a rapid, but linear clip, though silver continues to outpace both, today\u2019s plunge notwithstanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-years-december-silver-red-green-daily-candles-december-gold-yellow-line-bitcoin-blue-line\"><strong><em>2-Years, December Silver (red\/green daily candles), December Gold (yellow line), Bitcoin (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"889\" height=\"513\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-77.png\" alt=\"2-Years, December Silver (red\/green daily candles), December Gold (yellow line), Bitcoin (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-236636 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-77.png 889w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-77-700x404.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-77-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-77-768x443.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 889px) 100vw, 889px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 889px; aspect-ratio: 889\/513;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today was undoubtedly a wild one for silver traders.&nbsp; For better or worse, silver remains well above its moving average and peers.&nbsp; This move must have shaken out some of the most significant excesses in those markets, but the dip has still not brought us back to prevailing trends.&nbsp; We could still get a fair-sized correction while still maintaining the commodity\u2019s uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> Of course that refers to my favorite holiday-adjacent movie, <em>Trading Places, <\/em>and the activity in frozen concentrated orange juice futures on the old NYMEX when the Duke Brothers thought they stole the crop report.&nbsp; We deconstructed the goings on in that movie a few years ago in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/deconstructing-trading-places\/?query=trading%20places&amp;query_id=I0jBOtoWTLyaJVF2UT87fw&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=I0jBOtoWTLyaJVF2UT87fw\">this piece from December 2021<\/a>, which then led to a podcast with IBKR\u2019s founder and Chairman, where he discussed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/traders-insight-radio-ep-3-you-mean-you-dont-have-to-know-anything-to-do-this\/?query=you%20mean%20you%20don%27t%20&amp;query_id=fbqmXEE9TYWpER6gOCy_VA&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=fbqmXEE9TYWpER6gOCy_VA\">his role in the movie\u2019s genesis<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last night I got an alert that silver futures had traded above $80 per ounce.\u00a0 Knowing silver\u2019s recent parabolic move, I turned to my wife and said, \u201cif you have any silver jewelry that you no longer wear, sell it.\u201d\u00a0 Well, that wasn\u2019t quick enough.\u00a0 With the expiration of the December contract occurring today, we had a startling intraday reversal. Is this enough volatility for you?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":236639,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17,14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-236632","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-futures","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Look For the Silver Lining | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236632\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Look For the Silver Lining | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last night I got an alert that silver futures had traded above $80 per ounce.\u00a0 Knowing silver\u2019s recent parabolic move, I turned to my wife and said, \u201cif you have any silver jewelry that you no longer wear, sell it.\u201d\u00a0 Well, that wasn\u2019t quick enough.\u00a0 With the expiration of the December contract occurring today, we had a startling intraday reversal. Is this enough volatility for you?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/look-for-the-silver-lining\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-29T18:00:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-30T09:33:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/silver-trading-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve 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