{"id":236600,"date":"2025-12-29T10:00:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T15:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236600"},"modified":"2025-12-30T04:50:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T09:50:37","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-december-29-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-december-29-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of December 29, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% saar in 3Q25<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conf. Board Consumer Confidence fell to 89.1 from 92.9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pending home sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumers may have felt more generous this holiday season but they haven\u2019t felt more joyful. Two key measures of consumer attitudes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sentiment) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Confidence), remained bleak in December as assessments of current business and labor market conditions continued to deteriorate. Both Sentiment and Confidence show a longer trend of weakening consumer attitudes, and are down 29% and 19%, respectively, over the past year. However, this weakness has been far more apparent in the UofM Sentiment data in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sampling and timing differences can cause the indices to diverge month to month but there are other drivers behind the longer term gap. While both measure similar concepts, Sentiment tends to be more sensitive to prices, whereas Confidence moves more closely with the labor market. Sentiment deteriorated as fiscal stimulus, supply chain disruptions and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine pushed inflation to 40 year highs in 2022, while a historically tight labor market led to a more gradual softening in Confidence. Moreover, a methodological change has artificially biased the Sentiment index lower. The UofM began transitioning from phone interviews to web surveys to collect responses in early 2024. Web responses are generally more downbeat, but the historical data were not adjusted to account for this. The UofM estimates that the current index now runs ~6.6% points below the historical series derived via phone surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of the measure, consumers are noticeably gloomier today than in recent years. However, investors shouldn\u2019t take that as a cue to sit on the sidelines. Consumers continue to spend, and fiscal stimulus in early 2026 should support further outlays. Moreover, not only do equity fundamentals look solid heading into the new year, but also troughs in consumer sentiment have historically preceded stronger stock market returns than sentiment peaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1016\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-29-100122.png\" alt=\"Z-scores of consumer confidence indicators\" class=\"wp-image-236603 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-29-100122.png 1016w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-29-100122-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-29-100122-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-29-100122-768x305.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1016px) 100vw, 1016px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1016px; aspect-ratio: 1016\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Conference Board, FactSet, University of<br>Michigan, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<br>Thought of the week: Source: Conference Board, FactSet, University<br>of Michigan, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted December 22, 2025 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., December 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of December 29, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights that consumer sentiment and confidence are down sharply, with sentiment falling 29% and confidence 19% year over year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":236603,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-236600","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of December 29, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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