{"id":236578,"date":"2025-12-26T12:42:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T17:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236578"},"modified":"2025-12-26T14:35:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T19:35:55","slug":"a-look-at-supreme-court-tariff-decision-probabilities-fed-chair-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/a-look-at-supreme-court-tariff-decision-probabilities-fed-chair-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"A Look at Supreme Court Tariff Decision Probabilities, Fed Chair Odds: Dec. 26, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On a day when traditional Wall Street activities were closed, prediction market enthusiasts were active during the Christmas holiday. More than 12 million forecast contracts changed hands with the most popular themes involving climate and cryptocurrencies. The strong engagement is emblematic of the modern asset class\u2019s 24\/7 nature and how investors of all types can initiate positions in distinct topics that they know and understand, as well as learn about and dive into new subjects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-30-chance-of-supreme-court-upholding-tariffs\"><strong>30% Chance of Supreme Court Upholding Tariffs<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s recent remarks detailing his opinion that the Supreme Court should uphold his tariff measures have improved those odds meaningfully. Indeed, the 22% chance on Dec. 15, just 11 days ago, is now up to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=813325820%7C20260731%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">30%<\/a> and was as high as 32% on Dec. 18 and 23. Months prior, the likelihood was a coin-flip until a few conservative justices questioned whether the commander in chief was exceeding his authority at a hearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"491\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-13-1100x491.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Supreme Court decisions on tariffs\" class=\"wp-image-236580 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-13-1100x491.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-13-700x312.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-13-300x134.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-13-768x343.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-13.jpg 1405w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/491;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-chair-odds-have-been-quiet-this-week\"><strong>Fed Chair Odds Have Been Quiet This Week<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett\u2019s odds of being nominated as <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fed Chair<\/a> have been between 40% and 60% for almost two weeks now, and there\u2019s been modest movement during this Christmas week. Former and current Fed Governors Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller, second and third in line, are currently at 26% and 8%. President Trump\u2019s right-hand man, meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is at just 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"476\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-12-1100x476.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Trump nomination for Fed Chair. \" class=\"wp-image-236581 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-12-1100x476.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-12-700x303.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-12-300x130.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-12-768x333.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-12.jpg 1404w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/476;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"445\" height=\"518\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-12.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Trump nomination for Fed Chair. \" class=\"wp-image-236582 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-12.jpg 445w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-12-300x349.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 445px) 100vw, 445px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 445px; aspect-ratio: 445\/518;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 26, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On a day when traditional Wall Street activities were closed, prediction market enthusiasts were active during the Christmas holiday. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218521,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[199],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-236578","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-tariffs","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Look at Supreme Court Tariff 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