{"id":236539,"date":"2025-12-24T11:43:33","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T16:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236539"},"modified":"2025-12-24T11:49:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T16:49:07","slug":"is-the-market-ending-the-year-on-auto-pilot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/is-the-market-ending-the-year-on-auto-pilot\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Market Ending the Year on Auto-Pilot?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As the year winds down, markets appear unusually resilient despite tariffs, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing global uncertainty. Jeff Praissman and Prosper Trading Academy\u2019s Scott Bauer break down what moved markets, what didn\u2019t, and whether thin holiday trading could still deliver surprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is the Market Ending the Year on Auto-Pilot?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=dm94z-19ffbe2-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-336\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 336<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers Podcast.\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome back, for our weekly podcast with Prosper Trading Academy, Scott Bauer. Hey Scott, how are\u00a0you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeff, I am fantastic. It is\u00a0holiday\u00a0season.\u00a0We\u2019re\u00a0outta\u00a0here in a little bit.\u00a0How\u00a0you\u00a0doing?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m\u00a0doing well,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0doing well.\u00a0Yeah,\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0right. The market\u2019s\u00a0a half\u00a0day and, you know, everyone\u2019s\u00a0kind of just\u00a0ready to get going. But, you know,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0been a wild year, and I\u00a0kind of want\u00a0to kick it off with what was the biggest news story of the year that you think influenced the markets?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah,\u00a0I think it\u00a0has to\u00a0be tariffs and Liberation Day\u2014what happened to the markets back in April. Not that it was 100% unexpected, because there was talk about tariffs coming in, but nobody really knew what the reactions were going to be\u2014not just here in the U.S., but globally\u2014into the markets. So, you know, that was\u2014I\u2019m\u00a0not going to say one of those one-off events\u2014but that was certainly, let\u2019s\u00a0call it one of those two- or three-standard-deviation events that I\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0think anybody was really preparing for.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, and\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0a good point. And I think\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0a great answer. I would say on the flip\u00a0side of\u00a0maybe a\u00a0calmer influence would be AI, right? Like it was sort of more of a smooth curve,\u00a0whereas\u00a0the tariffs were just that huge bump in the log there. But I think my answer would be, you know, obviously tariffs, but also maybe AI was more of a consistent influence.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For sure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And then I want to\u00a0kind of flip\u00a0this. What do you think was the biggest non-new story\u2014something everyone thought was going to disrupt the\u00a0markets\u00a0but\u00a0kind of fizzled\u00a0out and never did?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So I\u2019m going to say one that I bet, if you took a poll, there wouldn\u2019t be many people that say this\u2014and I\u2019m going to say the Fed lowering rates, but seeing actual rates move higher, and that not affecting the market.\u00a0Right? At least not affecting the equity markets. You know, I think the intent and what everybody was thinking was, \u201cAh, the\u00a0Fed\u2019s\u00a0going to lower rates. Whether\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0one, two, three cuts,\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0going to see those rates come down.\u00a0We\u2019re\u00a0going to see the 10-year come down,\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0going to see the 30-year come down.\u201d And lo and behold, you know, sure,\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0seen some fluctuations, but the bond market has a mind of its own, right? And we just\u00a0haven\u2019t\u00a0seen that work in tandem. And to me, seeing the bond market really remain where\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0at\u2014yields really remain where\u00a0they\u2019re\u00a0at\u2014but the equity markets at all-time highs, to me,\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0a pretty\u00a0big surprise.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, no,\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0a good one. And I would\u00a0kind of add\u00a0to it\u2014and not to be political at all\u2014but\u00a0almost like\u00a0all the conflicts in the world, right?\u00a0There\u2019s\u00a0just a lot of\u00a0bad things\u00a0going on, and the markets seem to\u00a0kind of keep\u00a0chugging along.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0what they call that Teflon market, right?\u00a0And\u00a0gotta\u00a0be careful.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, yes. All right. And I know\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0got the holiday\u2014we\u2019ve\u00a0got a half day\u00a0today,\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0closed tomorrow, next week is New Year\u2019s\u2014but even with this year winding down, we do still have some numbers releasing next week, like ISM manufacturing PMI and the weekly jobless claims. Plus, December 31st is\u00a0actually a\u00a0pretty important\u00a0day, when\u00a0a lot of the funds rebalance.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That day\u2014what should we expect?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0going to see volatility, because\u00a0we\u2019ll\u00a0probably get\u00a0a little bit\u00a0lower\u00a0volume, but we do have these data points. And as\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0seen with\u00a0the more recent economic data that has come out, the market is a little unsure, right? Because of the government shutdown and because\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0been this backlog.\u00a0So\u00a0I think there is\u00a0a potential\u00a0for some surprises in these numbers next week, which will add to maybe some of the volatility and movement that I think we\u2019re going to see, given a little less liquidity than normal.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, no. And then finally, since we are winding down,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0just going to ask you\u2014what\u2019s\u00a0your favorite holiday movie and holiday tradition?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right. Well,\u00a0favorite\u00a0holiday movie for sure is\u00a0<em>Elf<\/em>.\u00a0There\u2019s\u00a0no question about it. That is my favorite.\u00a0But if we talk about more trading-related,\u00a0<em>Trading Places<\/em>\u00a0has to be it.\u00a0When I bring people down here to the CBOE, live on the trading floor, to visit, I always reference\u00a0<em>Trading Places<\/em>.\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0like, okay,\u00a0maybe\u00a0you\u2019ve\u00a0never seen a trading floor before, but this is really, really like what you saw in\u00a0<em>Trading Places<\/em>.\u00a0Maybe it\u2019s not Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd, but this is really what it\u2019s like.\u00a0So those two are always staples in my family. And how about you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I love\u00a0<em>Elf<\/em>.\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0funny\u2014my oldest is home from college. We actually watched\u00a0<em>It\u2019s\u00a0a Wonderful\u00a0Life<\/em>\u00a0last night. I really liked it.\u00a0I\u2019ve\u00a0got to say, on the\u00a0flip side,\u00a0<em>Office Christmas Party<\/em>\u2014do not let the kids see it\u2014but\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0a great one.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-7\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a good one.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-8\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I would say for the tradition\u2014eggnog. Some people love\u00a0it,\u00a0some people hate it. I absolutely love it, but I only\u00a0love\u00a0it for about three weeks, and I want nothing to do with it after that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-8\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s\u00a0it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-9\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>But I absolutely love eggnog.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-9\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s\u00a0it. Well, I hope you get your fill, but not too much of it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-10\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, Scott,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0been\u00a0a great year. Always\u00a0appreciate you\u00a0joining us for our Wednesday podcast. And for our listeners, you can find more from Scott at prospertradingacademy.com. Go to Education\u2014you can find prior podcasts, webinars, and articles. Scott, have a great New Year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-10\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you. Very\u00a0same\u00a0to you and your family, Jeff.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the year winds down, markets appear unusually resilient despite tariffs, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing global uncertainty. Jeff Praissman and Prosper Trading Academy\u2019s Scott Bauer break down what moved markets, what didn\u2019t, and whether thin holiday trading could still deliver surprises.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":236540,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[2255,3221,1840,4006,20970,20814,850,10995,72,11838,18815,3612,20971],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":{"0":"post-236539","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-bond-yields","10":"tag-economic-data","11":"tag-equity-markets","12":"tag-fed-policy","13":"tag-fund-rebalancing","14":"tag-holiday-trading","15":"tag-interest-rates","16":"tag-market-volatility","17":"tag-markets","18":"tag-stock-market-outlook","19":"tag-tariffs-impact","20":"tag-trading-strategy","21":"tag-year-end-trading","22":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","23":"contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the Market Ending the Year on Auto-Pilot? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As the year winds down, markets appear unusually resilient despite tariffs, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing global uncertainty. 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