{"id":236509,"date":"2025-12-23T13:09:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T18:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236509"},"modified":"2025-12-24T05:41:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T10:41:32","slug":"great-quarter-guys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/great-quarter-guys\/","title":{"rendered":"Great Quarter, Guys"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There is a longstanding Wall Street clich\u00e9 about analysts prefacing their post-earnings questions with the phrase, \u201cgreat quarter, guys.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp; With more females in C-suites, the \u201cguys\u201d portion <a href=\"https:\/\/curatedanalysis.substack.com\/p\/great-quarter-guys\">seems to have dropped off<\/a>, but the flattery still persists.&nbsp; This morning\u2019s GDP report brought the phrase immediately to mind as part of the question, \u201cGreat quarter, guys.&nbsp; So why exactly do we need rate cuts?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The initial estimate of 4.3% for Q3 Annualized Real GDP was indeed a stunner.&nbsp; It blew past both last quarter\u2019s 3.8% and the consensus estimate of 3.3%.&nbsp; Frankly, I\u2019m at a loss to understand why economists expected that magnitude of a decline, let alone underestimated the positive revision.&nbsp; It appears that it exceeded all but one of the 49 economists\u2019 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) normally issues three estimates of quarterly GDP, but the government shutdown caused the scheduled October 30<sup>th<\/sup> reading to be canceled.&nbsp; Today\u2019s would normally be the second reading for Q3, not the first. Perhaps that affected the quality of the forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The blurb on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/\">BEA website states<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following graph shows the composition of the jump:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"426\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-74-1100x426.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236511 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-74-1100x426.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-74-700x271.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-74-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-74-768x298.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-74.png 1138w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/426;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2025\/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits\"><em>bea.gov<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bear in mind that imports are a subtraction from the GDP calculation, which is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government + (Exports \u2013 Imports)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>or<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>GDP = C + I + G + NX<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tariffs almost certainly played a role in the positive impact of net exports, but I will need to leave it to others to properly gauge whether there was some front-loading of imports in earlier quarters.&nbsp; And despite consumer concerns, some of which were reflected in this morning\u2019s Confidence and Present Situation reports from the Conference Board, they continued spending money in the third quarter.&nbsp; This was clearly a healthy read on the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The one potential fly in the ointment came from prices.&nbsp; The Core PCE Price Index rose by 2.9%, in line with consensus but above last quarter\u2019s 2.6%.&nbsp; It should go without saying that it is well above the Fed\u2019s 2% target and moving in the wrong direction.&nbsp; While it is quite fair to question the \u201cmaximum employment\u201d portion of the \u201cdual mandate\u201d after recent jobs reports, it is equally fair \u2013 if not more so \u2013 to question whether the \u201cstable prices\u201d portion of the mandate is being met.&nbsp; The recent trends in the chart below are moving in the wrong direction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"473\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-73-1100x473.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236510 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-73-1100x473.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-73-700x301.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-73-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-73-768x330.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-73.png 1207w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/473;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2025\/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits\"><em>bea.gov<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, fixed income markets reacted accordingly.&nbsp; Expectations for a rate cut were pushed back, with chances for a cut by April falling from 86% yesterday to 70% today, and the timing for a second cut moved to December from October.&nbsp; The yield curve flattened, with 2-year yields rising by 4 basis points even as the 10-year remained about the same.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stock futures traders initially took the report as a modest negative, noting that stocks have tended to move in synch with rate cut expectations.&nbsp; Yet in the \u201cheads I win, tails I win\u201d manner that defines bull markets, traders gravitated back to megacap tech shares on the back of the positive economy.&nbsp; As stated many times, I prefer a market driven by a strong economy over one that relies upon rate cuts to advance.&nbsp; Today\u2019s move, however, is likely more about momentum than a reaction to the data, since economically sensitive sectors like Industrials and Consumer Discretionary are lower today.&nbsp; Santa\u2019s sleigh seems unimpeded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a longstanding Wall Street clich\u00e9 about analysts prefacing their post-earnings questions with the phrase, \u201cgreat quarter, guys.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 With more females in C-suites, the \u201cguys\u201d portion seems to have dropped off, but the flattery still persists.\u00a0 This morning\u2019s GDP report brought the phrase immediately to mind as part of the question, \u201cGreat quarter, guys.\u00a0 So why exactly do we need rate cuts?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":236513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-236509","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Great Quarter, Guys | Traders&#039; 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. 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