{"id":236497,"date":"2025-12-23T12:52:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T17:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236497"},"modified":"2025-12-23T17:55:58","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T22:55:58","slug":"forecast-trade-that-expires-tomorrow-us-final-gdp-next-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-trade-that-expires-tomorrow-us-final-gdp-next-month\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow, US Final GDP Next Month: Dec. 23, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Trading volumes at ForecastEx have been through the roof lately, with total pairings reaching 4.6 million on Dec. 22 and 15.7 million so far today with several hours to go. Prediction market enthusiasts continue engaging heavily with the same themes of the past few weeks, as daily high temperatures across US cities maintain a commanding share of transactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-yes-to-dallas-fed-wei-above-2\"><strong>\u201cYes\u201d To Dallas FED WEI Above 2%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The past 27 weeks have featured a reading below 2% from the Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) only once, and there\u2019s little reason to believe that tomorrow\u2019s print won\u2019t exceed that level. Against the backdrop of the last two weeks featuring prints of 2.29%, a drop of 0.29% in seven days is not very likely, and the \u201cYes\u201d contract at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=813720010%7C20251224%7C2%7CDecember%2020,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2% <\/a>is undervalued at $0.77, in my opinion. Additionally, the \u201cYes\u201d at 1.8% also offers favorable risk-reward dynamics and is going for $0.91.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1065\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-12.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236501 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-12.jpg 1065w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-12-700x51.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-12-300x22.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-12-768x56.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1065px) 100vw, 1065px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1065px; aspect-ratio: 1065\/77;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"452\" height=\"593\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236502 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-11.jpg 452w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-11-300x394.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 452px) 100vw, 452px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 452px; aspect-ratio: 452\/593;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-economy-has-momentum\"><strong>US Economy Has Momentum<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The US economy has momentum as seen in today\u2019s ferocious 4.3% gross domestic product (GDP) print for the third quarter and there\u2019s a very low chance of an imminent recession in my view even as fourth quarter performance will be hampered by the longest government shutdown in history. A technical recession by the end of Q1 2026 requires negative prints for both Q4 and Q1, but those odds are next to zero in consideration of a landscape that is benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus, lighter taxation, capex depreciation incentives, milder regulations, subdued energy costs and buoyant capital markets. The \u201cNo\u201d recession contract for Q1 2026 is undervalued at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=726203920%7C20260626%7C0%7CQ1%202026&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$0.90 <\/a>and should cost closer to $0.97 in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"995\" height=\"74\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236503 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-11.jpg 995w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-11-700x52.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-11-300x22.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-11-768x57.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 995px) 100vw, 995px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 995px; aspect-ratio: 995\/74;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Separately, the Q3 GDP print will be finalized in a month and a heavy revision down to 2.6% is almost impossible, making the \u201cYes\u201d contract at that level undervalued at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20260122%7C2.6%7CQ3%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$0.96<\/a>, since the release should be off the board in my opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"75\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-8.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236504 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-8.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-8-700x53.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-8-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-8-768x58.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1000px; aspect-ratio: 1000\/75;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 23, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading volumes at ForecastEx have been through the roof lately, with total pairings reaching 4.6 million on Dec. 22 and 15.7 million so far today with several hours to go.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":233187,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[20969],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-236497","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-us-gross-domestic-product","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow, US Final GDP Next Month: Dec. 23, 2025","description":"Trading volumes at ForecastEx have been through the roof lately, with total pairings reaching 4.6 million on Dec. 22 and 15.7 million so far today 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