{"id":236423,"date":"2025-12-22T12:52:06","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T17:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236423"},"modified":"2025-12-22T14:27:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T19:27:37","slug":"mispricing-in-tomorrows-us-forecast-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/mispricing-in-tomorrows-us-forecast-trades\/","title":{"rendered":"Mispricing in Tomorrow\u2019s US Forecast Trades: Dec. 22, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last weekend\u2019s volume on ForecastEx totaled 20.39 million as prediction market enthusiasts gravitated to daily high temperature contracts across US cities as well instruments connected to the prices of the Bitcoin and Solana cryptocurrencies. Today\u2019s 2.2 million contracts that have traded so far additionally feature the price of Ethereum and  futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices on the list of 10k contracts or more being traded. Below, I share high-conviction forecast trade ideas that expire tomorrow related to industrial production, corporate profits and the Baltic Dry Index.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-industrial-production-mispricing\"><strong>Industrial Production Mispricing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The low result from October 2024 and the associated expected increase in tomorrow\u2019s industrial production print signal a heavy likelihood that the publication will arrive north of 1%. Indeed, the favorable annualized base effect, September\u2019s reading of 1.6% and the median estimate of 2.1% year over year point to a mispricing, in my view. I believe the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=751047561%7C20251223%7C1%7COctober%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 1% should cost more than $0.70, but it\u2019s only at $0.26 and is significantly undervalued, in my opinion. Additionally, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 0.5%, 0%, -0.5% and -1% are appealing; they\u2019re going for $0.52, $0.70, $0.83 and $0.93.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"84\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-11-1100x84.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236425 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-11-1100x84.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-11-700x54.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-11-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-11-768x59.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-11.jpg 1394w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/84;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"447\" height=\"528\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-10.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236426 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-10.jpg 447w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-10-300x354.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 447px) 100vw, 447px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 447px; aspect-ratio: 447\/528;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-low-yeses-attractive-on-corporate-profits\"><strong>Low \u201cYeses\u201d Attractive on Corporate Profits<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Corporate profits tend to loosely track gross domestic product (GDP) in the directional sense, meaning that earnings and the economy generally move north or south together. Tomorrow\u2019s expectation of 3.2% for third-quarter GDP effectively means that corporate profits are very likely to be positive. For that reason, I find the \u201cYeses\u201d that are in negative territory attractive from a risk-reward standpoint. The \u201cYeses\u201d ranging from <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663567%7C20251223%7C-1.2%7CQ3%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">-1.2%<\/a> down to -7.2% are costing between $0.59 and $0.95 and offer wide paths for capital appreciation in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"89\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-10-1100x89.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236427 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-10-1100x89.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-10-700x57.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-10-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-10-768x62.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-10.jpg 1395w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/89;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"452\" height=\"598\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236428 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-7.jpg 452w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-7-300x397.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 452px) 100vw, 452px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 452px; aspect-ratio: 452\/598;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-baltic-dry-index-likely-to-continue-slipping\"><strong>Baltic Dry Index Likely to Continue Slipping<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower oil prices are likely to sustain the recent downward trend in the Baltic Dry Index, which is why I find the \u201cNos\u201d from 2,150 and higher attractive. The six thresholds ranging from 2,150 up to 2,650 are spanning from $0.72 to $0.94 in cost, while the underlying is currently at 2,023. I think there\u2019s a low probability that the gauge jumps to 2,150 or higher by tomorrow morning. But conversely, there\u2019s also a low chance that it drops to 1,700 or below, and I find the \u201cYeses\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=806002105%7C20251223%7C1700%7CDecember%2023,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1,700<\/a> and 1,550 attractive; they\u2019re going for $0.90 and $0.94.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"88\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-4-1100x88.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236429 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-4-1100x88.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-4-700x56.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-4-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-4-768x61.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-4.jpg 1395w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/88;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"468\" height=\"594\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236431 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-5.jpg 468w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-5-300x381.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 468px; aspect-ratio: 468\/594;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 22, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last weekend\u2019s volume on ForecastEx totaled 20.39 million as prediction market enthusiasts gravitated to daily high temperature contracts across US cities as well instruments connected to the prices of the Bitcoin and Solana cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":182479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-236423","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mispricing in Tomorrow\u2019s US Forecast 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