{"id":236355,"date":"2025-12-19T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T17:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236355"},"modified":"2025-12-19T13:00:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T18:00:13","slug":"asian-forecast-trade-ideas-that-expire-soon-dec-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/technical-analysis\/asian-forecast-trade-ideas-that-expire-soon-dec-19-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Asian Forecast Trade Ideas That Expire Soon: Dec. 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s trading volumes on ForecastEx amounted to 3.01 million and the themes with 10k or more total transactions included the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the Japanese Yen\/US Dollar currency pair and the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, the S&amp;P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 benchmark. Additionally, today\u2019s action so far is already north of 2.06 million and the events with 10k or higher excluding those mentioned above from December 18 include which political party will win majority control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections as well as the price of the Solana cryptocurrency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-likely-to-hold\"><strong>China Likely to Hold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The People\u2019s Bank of China is likely to hold rates steady tonight with an 88% degree of confidence. There is around an 11% chance, however, that officials in Beijing will cut to support the nation\u2019s weak economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"91\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-1100x91.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236360 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-1100x91.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-700x58.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-768x63.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-1536x126.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-68-2048x169.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/91;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-singapore-cpi-likely-to-exceed-1\"><strong>Singapore CPI Likely to Exceed 1%<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>My estimate of Singaporean inflation is at 1.4%, slightly higher than the 1.3% median estimate. Against the backdrop of an indicator which has a relatively subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to come in near projections, the \u201cYes\u201d at 1% should cost around $0.70. But it\u2019s significantly undervalued in my opinion at just $0.28. Additionally, \u201cthe \u201cYeses\u201d at 0%, and 0.5% are also attractive at $0.96 and $0.86, and so are the \u201cNos\u201d at 2% and 2.5%, costing $0.98 each. Finally, the monthly Reuters poll comprised of 6 forecasters places the minimum expectation at 1% and the maximum at 1.5%, offering prediction market enthusiasts an opportunity to play the tails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"92\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-1100x92.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236361 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-1100x92.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-700x59.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-768x64.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-1536x129.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-69-2048x172.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/92;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"690\" height=\"716\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-70.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236362 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-70.png 690w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-70-300x311.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 690px; aspect-ratio: 690\/716;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-strangle-for-hk-s-cpi\"><strong>Long Strangle for HK\u2019s CPI<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hong Kong\u2019s CPI is the opposite of Singapore\u2019s in the sense that it has an elevated deviation rate and can sometimes feature significant swings. My expectations is at 1.2% while the 3 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll are ranging from 1.2% to 1.5%. I think there\u2019s around a 25% chance of the figure coming in at 1% or below or above 1.5%, which is why I think the combination consisting of the \u201cYes\u201d at 1% and the \u201cNo\u201d at 1.5% is undervalued. The trade costs a total of $0.12 and delivers a $1.00 back to the investor on a swing to 1% or lower or a climb north of 1.5%. For context, the lowest print of the year has been 1% while the highest has been 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"93\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-1100x93.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236363 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-1100x93.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-700x59.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-768x65.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-1536x129.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-71-2048x172.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/93;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"692\" height=\"630\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-72.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236364 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-72.png 692w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-72-300x273.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 692px) 100vw, 692px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 692px; aspect-ratio: 692\/630;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 19, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday\u2019s trading volumes on ForecastEx amounted to 3.01 million and the themes with 10k or more total transactions included the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the Japanese Yen\/US Dollar currency pair and the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, the S&amp;P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 benchmark. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":236367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,6,8,9,23,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-236355","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-technical-analysis","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Asian Forecast Trade Ideas That Expire Soon: 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