{"id":236129,"date":"2025-12-16T12:54:57","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T17:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236129"},"modified":"2025-12-16T17:46:58","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T22:46:58","slug":"warsh-takes-the-lead-in-fed-chair-contract","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/warsh-takes-the-lead-in-fed-chair-contract\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsh Takes the Lead in Fed Chair Contract: Dec. 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has taken the lead across probabilities<\/a> tied to who will be nominated as the next Fed Chair. Meanwhile, news that President Trump will hold a few more meetings with several candidates bolstered current Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s chances to 9%; he\u2019s now in third place. The Kevins are still neck and neck, however, with one at 46% and the other at 41%. There are approximately 40k contracts connected to the commander in chief\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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ForecastEx Sees Broad Participation Yesterday<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s total trading volume on ForecastEx totaled 2.69 million, which was dominated by the daily high temperatures across major US cities. But other themes with overall transactions of 10k or higher included the prices of Bitcoin<\/a> and Solana<\/a>, the values of futures tied to the S&P 500<\/a> and Dow Jones Industrial Indices<\/a> and the US and Hong Kong<\/a> dollar currency pair.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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