{"id":236077,"date":"2025-12-15T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T18:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236077"},"modified":"2025-12-16T04:51:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T09:51:59","slug":"it-aint-over-til-its-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/it-aint-over-til-its-over\/","title":{"rendered":"It Ain\u2019t Over \u2018Til It\u2019s Over"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>(Today\u2019s soundtrack: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/TmENMZFUU_0\">Lenny Kravitz, of course<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s headline is a bit of a litmus test.&nbsp; Older readers and Yankees fans will attribute it to Yogi Berra, <a href=\"https:\/\/ftw.usatoday.com\/story\/sports\/mlb\/2019\/03\/28\/the-50-greatest-yogi-berra-quotes\/81998471007\/\">maxim generator extraordinaire<\/a>, while younger readers and non-baseball fans will attribute it to Lenny Kravitz and his hit song.&nbsp; Either way, this morning it refers to the horserace for the new Federal Reserve Chair, with the relative odds of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/central-banking\/trump-fed-chair-hassett-warsh-3373fe8e?mod=article_inline\">two Kevins<\/a>\u201d shifting dramatically.&nbsp; This has implications for bond yields, and by extension, stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/ftw.usatoday.com\/story\/sports\/mlb\/2019\/03\/28\/the-50-greatest-yogi-berra-quotes\/81998471007\/\"><em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> interview<\/a> on Friday, President Trump referred to Kevin Warsh, not Hassett, as the person at the top of his list, saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Yes, I think he [Warsh] is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They\u2019re both\u2014I think&nbsp;the two Kevins&nbsp;are great,\u201d he said. \u201cI think there are a couple of other people that are great<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prediction markets had heavily favored Hassett as the preferred Kevin prior to that statement but now show a two-horse race.&nbsp; Earlier this month, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">\u201cYes\u201d for Hassett on ForecastEx<\/a> touched 90, though it had slipped to 73 in the days leading up to Friday as the expected appointment failed to materialize as quickly as some hoped.&nbsp; It last traded at 47, essentially a coin-flip; meanwhile, the \u201cYes\u201d for Warsh leapt from 14 to 40 during that time frame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"993\" height=\"499\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-33.png\" alt=\"Presidential Nomination for Fed Chair\" class=\"wp-image-236079 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-33.png 993w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-33-700x352.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-33-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-33-768x386.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 993px) 100vw, 993px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 993px; aspect-ratio: 993\/499;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\"><em>ForecastEx<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1012\" height=\"513\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-35.png\" alt=\"Presidential nomination for Fed Chair\" class=\"wp-image-236081 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-35.png 1012w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-35-700x355.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-35-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-35-768x389.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1012px) 100vw, 1012px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1012px; aspect-ratio: 1012\/513;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7CJanuary%2020,%202029&amp;detail=contract_details\"><em>ForecastEx<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One might ask why the odds for Warsh aren\u2019t higher, especially after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/fed-chair-front-runner-hassetts-candidacy-opposed-by-people-close-to-trump-cnbc-reports\/ar-AA1SoBLI?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">CNBC reported this morning<\/a> that Hassett\u2019s candidacy has gotten pushback from people close to President Trump.&nbsp; My personal view, quite frankly, is based on the President\u2019s well-honed sense of the media.&nbsp; It is boring if there is a clear frontrunner; a two-person race creates drama and thus attention.&nbsp; It may of course be extreme to consider this a real-life episode of \u201cThe Apprentice, Fed Chair Edition\u201d, but if anyone knows how to generate ratings from a reality-show style competition, it is the President.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(We first used the reality show analogy&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/fed-heads-play-the-apprentice-while-tariffs-lurk\/?query=apprentice&amp;query_id=jicft82DTq-1e0uRuL7Jdw&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=jicft82DTq-1e0uRuL7Jdw\">in a June podcast<\/a>.&nbsp; Interestingly, the two names that we discussed at the time, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller are both considered dark horse candidates now.&nbsp; Waller has a \u201cYes\u201d of 5, while Bowman has a 2.&nbsp; The latter is below Treasury Secretary Bessent\u2019s 3 and tied with former World Bank President David Malpass.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why does this matter, then?&nbsp; Investors clearly prefer greater central bank independence.&nbsp; That is undoubtedly why the President has switched from advocating for Chair Powell\u2019s firing toward simply criticizing him ahead of his imminent term expiration.&nbsp; It is also believed to be the rationale behind those advocating for consideration of Kevin Warsh over Hassett.&nbsp; The latter is viewed as more partisan, though he downplayed the idea that the President would have much of an influence on policy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/kevin-hassett-says-he-d-be-happy-to-talk-to-trump-every-day-as-fed-chair-but-the-president-s-opinion-would-have-no-weight-on-the-fomc\/ar-AA1SkNqT?ocid=BingNewsSerp\">in an interview this weekend<\/a>.&nbsp; You can decide whether that was in response to the recent WSJ report or not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In either case, that may be why longer-term Treasury yields ticked lower this morning.&nbsp; A Fed that heeds the call of lower rates regardless of data would spur inflation expectations.&nbsp; Those would spur higher long-term interest rates, and in turn, lead to a steeper yield curve.&nbsp; In theory, that would pressure stock prices, though stocks have been shown to shrug off higher yields for lengthy stretches.&nbsp; Stocks can weather modest inflation, though major inflationary cycles do ultimately impinge upon valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, in the short term, we have some levels to watch.&nbsp; This morning\u2019s reflexive \u201cbuy the dip\u201d rally ended rather quickly.&nbsp; But the S&amp;P 500 managed to hold Friday\u2019s test of the 6,800 level, halting the morning\u2019s declines.&nbsp; A break below that could get nastier.&nbsp; Also, bitcoin has run into a bit of trouble again.&nbsp; While it is holding above its own recent lows, the trend has become unpleasant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And one more thing: a reader wisely pointed out an error in the FOMC table that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/options-market-expectations-for-the-fomc\/\">we published last week<\/a>. (Yes, I read the comments.&nbsp; Please keep them coming.)&nbsp;&nbsp; We have updated the table with last week\u2019s data and amended the bad data point for the March 2025 FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-2-days-2-minute-candles\"><strong><em>SPX 2-Days, 2-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"898\" height=\"514\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-36.png\" alt=\"SPX 2-Days, 2-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-236082 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-36.png 898w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-36-700x401.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-36-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-36-768x440.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 898px) 100vw, 898px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 898px; aspect-ratio: 898\/514;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bitcoin-6-months-daily-candles-with-50-day-moving-average-blue-line-top-100-day-moving-average-yellow-line-top-bollinger-bands-top-macd-12-26-9-middle-14-day-rsi-bottom\"><strong><em>Bitcoin 6-Months, Daily Candles with 50-Day Moving Average (blue line, top), 100-Day Moving Average (yellow line, top), Bollinger Bands (top), MACD 12,26,9 (middle), 14-Day RSI (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"949\" height=\"602\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-37.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin 6-Months, Daily Candles with 50-Day Moving Average (blue line, top), 100-Day Moving Average (yellow line, top), Bollinger Bands (top), MACD 12,26,9 (middle), 14-Day RSI (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-236083 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-37.png 949w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-37-700x444.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-37-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-37-768x487.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 949px) 100vw, 949px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 949px; aspect-ratio: 949\/602;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"664\" height=\"955\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-34.png\" alt=\"1 and 3 day changes after previous FOMC meetings\" class=\"wp-image-236080 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-34.png 664w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-34-300x431.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 664px; aspect-ratio: 664\/955;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s headline is a bit of a litmus test.  Older readers and Yankees fans will attribute it to Yogi Berra, maxim generator extraordinaire, while younger readers and non-baseball fans will attribute it to Lenny Kravitz and his hit song.  Either way, this morning it refers to the horserace for the new Federal Reserve Chair, with the relative odds of the \u201ctwo Kevins\u201d shifting dramatically.  This has implications for bond yields, and by extension, stock prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":236086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14545,20937,169,1383,20936],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-236077","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-ai-stocks","15":"tag-broad-market","16":"tag-futures","17":"tag-market-sentiment","18":"tag-tech-rotation","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>It Ain\u2019t Over \u2018Til It\u2019s Over | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today\u2019s headline is a bit of a litmus test. Older readers and Yankees fans will attribute it to Yogi Berra, maxim generator extraordinaire, while...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236077\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It Ain\u2019t Over \u2018Til It\u2019s Over | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today\u2019s headline is a bit of a litmus test. Older readers and Yankees fans will attribute it to Yogi Berra, maxim generator extraordinaire, while younger readers and non-baseball fans will attribute it to Lenny Kravitz and his hit song. Either way, this morning it refers to the horserace for the new Federal Reserve Chair, with the relative odds of the \u201ctwo Kevins\u201d shifting dramatically. This has implications for bond yields, and by extension, stock prices.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/it-aint-over-til-its-over\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T18:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-16T09:51:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/businessman-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta 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