{"id":236063,"date":"2025-12-15T12:48:48","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T17:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236063"},"modified":"2025-12-15T15:05:38","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T20:05:38","slug":"next-fed-chair-warsh-and-hassett-are-now-neck-and-neck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/next-fed-chair-warsh-and-hassett-are-now-neck-and-neck\/","title":{"rendered":"Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hassett Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on Dec. 13 and 14. Some of the instruments with the most engagement were the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796603920%7C20251218%7C1%7C\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bank of Japan\u2019s <\/a>decision on Thursday and rate verdicts from the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=791099755%7C20260128%7C3%7CJanuary%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Federal Reserve<\/a> in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"81\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-9-1100x81.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if New York City highest temperature will exceed 28 F on December 15.\" class=\"wp-image-236067 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-9-1100x81.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-9-700x52.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-9-300x22.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-9-768x57.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-9.jpg 1393w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/81;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-8-1100x86.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Bank of Japan will raise its key rate on December 19.\" class=\"wp-image-236068 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-8-1100x86.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-8-700x55.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-8-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-8-768x60.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-8.jpg 1392w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"87\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-7-1100x87.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the Fed will leave rate unchanged in January 2026\" class=\"wp-image-236069 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-7-1100x87.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-7-700x55.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-7-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-7-768x61.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-7.jpg 1393w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/87;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-chair-odds-hassett-at-43-warsh-at-41\"><strong>Fed Chair Odds: Hassett at 43%, Warsh at 41%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Worries from Washington officials that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is too close to President Trump and the contender\u2019s constant mentions of the need for an apolitical, independent central bank whose decisions aren\u2019t influenced by the White House have plunged his chances from 90% on Dec. 3 to 43% today. Meanwhile, the commander in chief mentioning that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is at the top spot has lifted his probability from 9% on Dec. 9 to a high of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7CJanuary%2020,%202029&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">43<\/a>% on Friday. Approximately 41k contracts are open tied to the nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1507\" height=\"490\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/fed-appointment.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236095 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/fed-appointment.jpeg 1507w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/fed-appointment-700x228.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/fed-appointment-1100x358.jpeg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/fed-appointment-300x98.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/fed-appointment-768x250.jpeg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1507px) 100vw, 1507px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1507px; aspect-ratio: 1507\/490;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gasoline-prices-plunged-again-last-week\"><strong>Gasoline Prices Plunged Again Last Week<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gasoline futures prices plunged last week, indicating an abundant supply environment. But sometimes those decreases aren\u2019t immediately felt in retail costs, which are less volatile and respond in a slower way. The previous two weeks featured plunges from $3.061 to $2.985 and then to $2.94, and against that backdrop, I believe the \u201cYes\u201d contract at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=751047545%7C20251216%7C2.9%7CDecember%2015,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$2.90<\/a> is undervalued at $0.10 for this week\u2019s print. Indeed, I think the price should be closer to $0.25, in response to retailers looking to sustain pricing power following 2 consecutive weeks with sharp drops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-4-1100x86.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US gasoline prices will exceed $2.9 for the week ending December 15, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-236072 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-4-1100x86.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-4-700x55.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-4-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-4-768x60.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-4.jpg 1396w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-residential-construction-expectations\"><strong>New Residential Construction Expectations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Expectations for November building permits and housing starts are near consensus estimates, with the former sporting odds of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856699%7C20251216%7C1300000%7CNovember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">59%<\/a> of a number north of 1.3 million amidst a 69% probability of a figure south of 1.351 million. Similarly, the latter prices a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663557%7C20251216%7C1300000%7CNovember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">53%<\/a> chance of a result exceeding 1.3 million and an 82% likelihood that the print won\u2019t come in above 1.4 million. The market\u2019s projections are at 1.34 million and 1.32 million, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"372\" height=\"443\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/build-permits.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding initial building permit volume. f \" class=\"wp-image-236073 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/build-permits.jpg 372w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/build-permits-300x357.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 372px) 100vw, 372px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 372px; aspect-ratio: 372\/443;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"363\" height=\"375\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture8-starts.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-236074 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture8-starts.jpg 363w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture8-starts-300x310.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 363px) 100vw, 363px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 363px; aspect-ratio: 363\/375;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 15, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on Dec. 13 and 14. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":184479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-236063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hassett Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on Dec. 13 and 14.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236063\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hassett Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on Dec. 13 and 14.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/next-fed-chair-warsh-and-hassett-are-now-neck-and-neck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta 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