{"id":236054,"date":"2025-12-15T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=236054"},"modified":"2025-12-16T05:01:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T10:01:08","slug":"weekly-economic-perspectives-quarterly-we-raise-our-global-growth-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-economic-perspectives-quarterly-we-raise-our-global-growth-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Economic Perspectives (Quarterly Edition): We raise our global growth forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Global growth rises to 3.0% amid resilient trade and flat inflation; delayed policy effects and fiscal pressures shape 2026, while central banks calibrate easing and labor markets adjust to tech\u2011driven shifts.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pleasantly surprised<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This entire year, we\u2019ve maintained an upside\u2011to\u2011consensus view of global growth, and it turns out it hasn\u2019t been optimistic enough. This round, we\u2019ve made a further \u201cmark to market\u201d upgrade to global growth (up two-tenths to 3.0%) thanks to slightly better trajectories in the United States, China, and the eurozone. Next year\u2019s forecast remains unchanged at 2.9%, as the anticipated acceleration in the US is offset by moderation in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a fundamental lesson here. It is often said that we tend to overestimate technology\u2019s impact in the short term and underestimate it in the long term. The same is often true for geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts. The April 2 \u201cliberation day\u201d tariffs triggered acute fears of an immediate collapse in trade, a spike in inflation, and a global recession. In the event, global trade volumes continued to rise, inflation largely flatlined, and global growth remained near trend. That is not to say that nothing is happening; rather, it is taking a long time for the full impact to be visible. This is why we sometimes describe 2026 as the year of delayed policy impact\u2014the adjustments are ongoing. We have not seen the full reorientation of trade, nor the full pass\u2011through to inflation, nor much visible lift to growth from the German debt brake deal. Moreover, not all policy shocks are behind us. Mexico\u2019s recent announcement of tariffs on Chinese imports is a case in point. Trade frictions continue to percolate. Even so, the global economy has proven incredibly resilient and tariff pass\u2011through contained. This allows the Fed to deliver a few more cuts next year, allows the BoE to offer more meaningful easing, and allows most other central banks to stand by and assess the process without needing to intervene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Resilience<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on December 15, 2025 – Weekly Economic Perspectives (Quarterly Edition): We raise our global growth forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Exp. Date: 12\/31\/2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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