{"id":235990,"date":"2025-12-12T12:58:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T17:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235990"},"modified":"2025-12-12T14:28:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T19:28:57","slug":"forecast-supreme-court-likely-to-decide-against-trump-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-supreme-court-likely-to-decide-against-trump-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: Supreme Court Likely to Decide Against Trump Tariffs: Dec. 12, 2025\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday\u2019s trading on ForecastEx featured 3.3 million contracts transacted, and some of the most popular themes featuring more than 10k instruments exchanged throughout the session were the daily temperatures across US cities, the prices of Dow, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, the prices of Solana and Bitcoin and the US and Canadian dollar currency pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-supreme-court-tariff-contract-sees-movement\"><strong>Supreme Court Tariff Contract Sees Movement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast question asking if the Supreme Court will uphold President Trump\u2019s tariffs by July 31 has experienced some volatility this week. The 35% probability on Tuesday declined to 23% yesterday before rebounding to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=813325820%7C20260731%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">25%<\/a> at the moment.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"480\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-8-1100x480.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Supreme Court will uphold Trump tariffs.\" class=\"wp-image-235993 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-8-1100x480.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-8-700x305.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-8-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-8-768x335.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-8.jpg 1398w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/480;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-japan-to-hike-mexico-to-cut\"><strong>Japan to Hike, Mexico to Cut<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next week\u2019s central bank decisions from <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796603920%7C20251218%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Japan<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796603954%7C20251218%7C4%7CDecember%2018,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mexico<\/a> feature odds north of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796603920%7C20251218%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">92%<\/a> that the former will hike while the latter will cut. In the last few days, participants have been growing more confident of the verdicts, since those same contracts were in the 80s earlier this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"477\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7-1100x477.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Bank of Japan will raise its interest rate on Dec. 19.\" class=\"wp-image-235994 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7-1100x477.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7-700x303.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7-300x130.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7-768x333.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7-1536x666.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-7.jpg 1751w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/477;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"481\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-6-1100x481.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Bank of Mexico will lower its interest rate on December 18\" class=\"wp-image-235995 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-6-1100x481.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-6-700x306.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-6-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-6-768x335.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-6.jpg 1401w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/481;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-monday-s-canada-cpi-expected-to-come-around-2-1\"><strong>Monday\u2019s Canada CPI Expected to Come Around 2.1%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s Consumer Price Index is volatile, but participants are expecting the indicator to come in around 2.1%, a figure near October\u2019s 2.2% result. There\u2019s a 36% chance of a number north of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=726203945%7C20251215%7C2.2%7CNovember%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.2%<\/a>, and a 36% probability of a print south of 2.1%. Investors that want to position for a surprise in either direction could purchase both of the $0.36 contracts and earn $1.00 back if it comes in at 2% or lower or 2.3% or higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-5-1100x86.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Canada CPI will exceed 2% in November\" class=\"wp-image-235996 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-5-1100x86.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-5-700x55.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-5-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-5-768x60.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-5.jpg 1392w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-2-1100x86.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Canada CPI will exceed 2.2% in November\" class=\"wp-image-235997 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-2-1100x86.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-2-700x55.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-2-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-2-768x60.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-2.jpg 1397w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 12, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday\u2019s trading on ForecastEx featured 3.3 million contracts transacted, and some of the most popular themes featuring more than 10k instruments exchanged throughout the session were the daily temperatures across US cities, prices of the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, prices of Solana and Bitcoin and the US and Canadian dollar currency pair.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":234519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-235990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast: Supreme Court Likely to Decide Against Trump Tariffs: Dec. 12, 2025\u00a0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s trading on ForecastEx featured 3.3 million contracts transacted, and some of the most popular themes featuring more than 10k instruments...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235990\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast: Supreme Court Likely to Decide Against Trump Tariffs: Dec. 12, 2025\u00a0 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s trading on ForecastEx featured 3.3 million contracts transacted, and some of the most popular themes featuring more than 10k instruments exchanged throughout the session were the daily temperatures across US cities, prices of the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, prices of Solana and Bitcoin and the US and Canadian dollar currency pair.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-supreme-court-likely-to-decide-against-trump-tariffs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-12T17:58:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-12T19:28:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/tariffs-groceries-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-supreme-court-likely-to-decide-against-trump-tariffs\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-supreme-court-likely-to-decide-against-trump-tariffs\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": 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