{"id":235847,"date":"2025-12-10T12:48:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T17:48:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235847"},"modified":"2025-12-10T16:00:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T21:00:40","slug":"hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh\/","title":{"rendered":"Hassett\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets yesterday, as it\u2019s unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his opinion across potential selections. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is still the heavy favorite at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">72%<\/a>, although he has been trending south. Emblematic of his narrowing lead are odds that were at 80% on Dec. 9 and 90% on Dec. 3. Part of the decrease can be attributed to Hassett stating that he wouldn\u2019t bow to pressure from the White House to reduce rates and would instead rely on his own judgement. But Hassett balanced that declaration by saying that there\u2019s plenty of room to cut, effectively serving dovish remarks signaling a preference for additional accommodation that President Trump would certainly support. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh\u2019s likelihood jumped from 9% yesterday to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">16%<\/a> today, since the commander in chief is beginning the talks with him. Prospects amongst the others were relatively flat since there wasn\u2019t a reason to believe that their chances have improved. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman remain below 5%, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C4%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6%<\/a>. There are approximately 26k contracts open that are tied to the nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"819\" height=\"362\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235849 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-6.jpg 819w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-6-700x309.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-6-300x133.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-6-768x339.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 819px; aspect-ratio: 819\/362;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"808\" height=\"353\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235850 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 808px; aspect-ratio: 808\/353;width:818px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-5.jpg 808w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-5-700x306.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-5-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-5-768x336.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 808px) 100vw, 808px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"456\" height=\"516\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235854 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-4.jpg 456w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-4-300x339.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 456px) 100vw, 456px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 456px; aspect-ratio: 456\/516;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-claims-could-stay-volatile\"><strong>Claims Could Stay Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week\u2019s reported plunge in initial unemployment claims led to the lowest reading in 38 months, or since September 2022. But although consensus expectations project a 220k in tomorrow\u2019s print, this time of year does typically offer volatility for this specific indicator. The trend in recent periods is that filings are increasingly subdued during the holidays and against that backdrop there are undervalued forecast contract opportunities in my opinion. Indeed, a modest drop from the 191k level to 190k or lower for example, is priced at just 2%, corresponding with the \u201cNo\u201d being available $0.02. Meanwhile, the \u201cNo\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20251211%7C200000%7CDecember%206,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">200k<\/a> is going for $0.05 and the \u201cYes\u201d at 220k is costing $0.09. This combination trade offers a favorable risk-reward profile from my perspective and costs a total of $0.16. It delivers $2.00 to investors on a number at or below 190k, $1.00 back on a figure as low as 191k or as high as 200k and a payout of $1.00 on a result north of 220k with a max loss of only $0.16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1247\" height=\"112\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235855 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-1.jpg 1247w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-1-700x63.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-1-1100x99.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-1-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-1-768x69.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1247px) 100vw, 1247px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1247px; aspect-ratio: 1247\/112;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"468\" height=\"438\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235856 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-1.jpg 468w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-1-300x281.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 468px; aspect-ratio: 468\/438;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weekly-economic-indicator-could-accelerate\"><strong>Weekly Economic Indicator Could Accelerate<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index hasn\u2019t exceeded 2.4% since the week of Oct. 11, but there\u2019s a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=813720010%7C20251211%7C2.4%7CDecember%206,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">20%<\/a> chance according to our prediction market that it\u2019ll climb above that level in tomorrow&#8217;s print. If an acceleration were to occur, that would be great news for growth trends and corporate earnings prospects, especially on the heels of a projected rate cut in the prior day that is poised to add further fuel to the fire. The recent reopening of the government also offers a short-term cyclical tailwind that could motivate \u201cYes\u201d contract buying here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"81\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-1100x81.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235857 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-1100x81.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-700x52.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-300x22.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-768x57.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7.jpg 1391w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/81;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 10, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets yesterday, as it\u2019s unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his opinion across potential selections. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":23430,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-235847","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hassett\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets yesterday, as it\u2019s unclear to...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235847\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hassett\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets yesterday, as it\u2019s unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his 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