{"id":235805,"date":"2025-12-10T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235805"},"modified":"2025-12-11T04:12:31","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T09:12:31","slug":"fed-day-a-hawkish-cut-but-how-hawkish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/fed-day-a-hawkish-cut-but-how-hawkish\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Day: A Hawkish Cut\u2026 But How Hawkish?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

E-mini S&P (December) \/ E-mini NQ (December)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 6848.25, down 7.50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 25,699.75, up 35.75<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is Fed Day, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 89.9% probability the bank will cut by 25bps at 1:00 pm CT. With the cut a foregone conclusion, the committee\u2019s messaging and Summary of Economic Projections will be critical, along with Fed Chair Powell\u2019s tone during the press conference. Given Powell\u2019s hawkishness at the October meeting, and the committee\u2019s messaging in the following days, it is widely expected that this will be a hawkish cut. With that said, it may not be as \u201chawkish\u201d as the market has begun to anticipate and this could bring opportunity in the aftermath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Employment Cost Index for Q3 is due at 7:30 am CT. In the news this morning is momentum around China\u2019s large tech companies preparing for orders of NVDA\u2019s H200 chips, however, there has been little to no impact on the market. ORCL and ADBE report after the bell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures traded well after the opening bell yesterday morning but quickly lost traction and slipped in the back half of the day, and into settlement. Key resistance comes in at yesterday\u2019s highs at 6868.50-6872.75, and in front of that at 6859.50. First support comes in at 6835.25-6836.25, helping to define the range of the week. Given yesterday\u2019s muted tape and lack of overnight enthusiasm, it could trade a bit heavy early. Still, we will look for price action to firm back up ahead of the policy meeting if it can hold above our Pivot and point of balance in the E-mini S&P at\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlock full technical breakdowns and our daily take on crude, metals, livestock, grains, and equities\u2014sign up through the portal today and don\u2019t miss a move.\u00a0SIGN UP<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on December 10, 2025 – Fed Day: A Hawkish Cut\u2026 But How Hawkish?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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