{"id":235709,"date":"2025-12-09T04:16:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T09:16:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235709"},"modified":"2025-12-09T06:27:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:27:16","slug":"chart-advisor-relatively-strong-despite-fear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-relatively-strong-despite-fear\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Relatively Strong Despite Fear"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/links.investopedia.com\/u\/click?_t=36ba8fa8372241d58b3bfc06997a4332&amp;_m=a12b24878e604f4f8209ea7746912093&amp;_e=fR-1xduOpnZbMGsbBErvdpainiKl3JBk7D2I69_NbODK7GQv72_dXDEeLev5jTWEHXcOZxmZYPDL3xLE6D0HAyE_T1gfEEx7q_OzfYAmLXcoQGN4r_WHME8QAQ5Z_O_6jE25wVq0BJ38uTjezdHCQoVMQnhdtezdPKCSDaQlNNfF2nAk00jFndf_CfiJmSFM7TuiK7G0ROchjIXY3HG6KQ2NG56DHi7jYKIvEgf10VSpwuyHBHqX1e3H7de8d3Q2W5D4PLuKFwv7PIYkDoHzyHwM7xty0-CPTjEa3Nl1nZXO-Mm0OTuBfImzWFX0h9HaeRcyGkrwlEa3p7pPegPZSdSm83TCWyaYcYiKQj9O4DD3_y9vrF-mJmWAv15nre7fZZ72QQ6xiZUUu4xmWIWEF6x5dPoN7dnuYQL4Zf7GfxFYCUXtiLdNBOGhIsljG2mxYcRjc4rdidiSlStjx7tE01hi6NPxgToKYMI-eSGTXMwceXhXar3pJ7J7pr9A05fmDYmTFYlYNmZoqxMYhVCccahHHFTi_CywGO9Bq9sk0M2NwQLt5ybfQ0Ce-fEsOw0h\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Relatively Strong Despite Fear<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. &nbsp;The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-relatively-strong-despite-fear\"><strong>Relatively Strong Despite Fear<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To start this week\u2019s \u201c5-days of Chartmas,\u201d investors continue to be fearful, with no shortage of pundits calling for a market top. Whether it\u2019s technology, A.I., or the S&amp;P500, I keep hearing new stories about how bad things are going to get.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most professionals understand that sentiment is inversely correlated with investment performance, and if you google \u201cCNN Fear Greed,\u201d you\u2019ll likely find a link to this image (below) at the top of your search results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1059\" height=\"602\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/CNN-Fear-Greed.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235710 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/CNN-Fear-Greed.png 1059w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/CNN-Fear-Greed-700x398.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/CNN-Fear-Greed-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/CNN-Fear-Greed-768x437.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1059px) 100vw, 1059px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1059px; aspect-ratio: 1059\/602;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, high levels of fear in the market do not historically produce high probabilities of market tops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take, for instance, this chart (below) published by SentimenTrader, where in the top pane, you have the S&amp;P500 and in the bottom pane, their \u201cPanic \/ Euphoria\u201d model. This chart goes all the way back to 1990, and major market tops have only occurred after peaks above 1.0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, there were times like the late-90s, or during most of the market rebound from 2003-2007 or 2009-2015 when the model was consistently elevated and the market just wouldn\u2019t crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, we\u2019re just not seeing this kind of elevated bullish sentiment\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"626\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/ST-Sentiment-1100x626.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235711 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/ST-Sentiment-1100x626.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/ST-Sentiment-700x399.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/ST-Sentiment-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/ST-Sentiment-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/ST-Sentiment.png 1310w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/626;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, aside from the fact that the stock market continues to rise, despite all the negativity and doom &amp; gloom, we\u2019re still living in a relatively strong time period during the 4-year election cycle. The table below comes from The Stock Trader\u2019s Almanac and as you can see, the month of December is the 2nd best month for the market during a post-election year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not until the second and third quarter of a midterm election year (which would be 2026, by the way) when things historically start to struggle\u2026 but, the next three quarters thereafter are typically the strongest period fo time during the entire cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"882\" height=\"386\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/STA-4-Year-Cycle.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235712 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/STA-4-Year-Cycle.jpg 882w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/STA-4-Year-Cycle-700x306.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/STA-4-Year-Cycle-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/STA-4-Year-Cycle-768x336.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 882px) 100vw, 882px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 882px; aspect-ratio: 882\/386;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Naturally, the only thing that matters is what actually happens, not what some historical statistics say, which is why using technical analysis, relative strength, and trend following can give you an edge when markets get volatile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So stay tuned for more educational charts and tables, and the final four \u201cDays of Chartmas,\u201d throughout the remainder of this week!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 8th December 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By&nbsp;Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA Relatively Strong Despite Fear Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. &nbsp;The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":235710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[11819,778,910,207],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-235709","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-technical-analysis","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-djia","16":"tag-nasdaq","17":"tag-sp-500","18":"tag-spx","19":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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