{"id":235665,"date":"2025-12-08T12:41:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T17:41:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235665"},"modified":"2025-12-08T15:48:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-08T20:48:27","slug":"weekend-trading-volumes-on-forecastex-jump-above-13-million","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/weekend-trading-volumes-on-forecastex-jump-above-13-million\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekend Trading Volumes on ForecastEx Jump Above 13 Million: Dec. 8, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Saturday and Sunday, December 6 and 7, ForecastEx saw trading volumes exceed 13 million contracts. The daily high <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=828647208%7C20251209%7C86%7CDecember%208,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">temperatures<\/a> across major US cities, the price of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=793085688%7C20251231%7C105000%7CDecember%2031,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bitcoin<\/a> and this Wednesday\u2019s Fed <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=791099755%7C20251210%7C4%7CDecember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">decision<\/a> were some of the themes with the greatest engagement. Interest is building on this week\u2019s verdict on rates from the US central bank, with approximately 380k contracts open that are tied to the event. Transactions are poised to increase significantly with settlement approaching in roughly 48 hours. Indeed, growing participation as we approach expiry is a trend we\u2019ve seen during past monetary policy meetings that I expect to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"88\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-3-1100x88.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding highest temperature in Miami on December 8, 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-235668 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-3-1100x88.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-3-700x56.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-3-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-3-768x61.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-3.jpg 1395w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/88;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"83\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-2-1100x83.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Bitcoin cost will exceed $105,000 on Dec. 31.\" class=\"wp-image-235669 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-2-1100x83.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-2-700x53.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-2-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-2-768x58.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-2.jpg 1395w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/83;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"85\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-1-1100x85.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Fed will lower rate this month. \" class=\"wp-image-235670 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-1-1100x85.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-1-700x54.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-1-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-1-768x59.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-1.jpg 1389w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/85;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-but-the-expected-cut-will-feature-disagreement\"><strong>But the Expected Cut Will Feature Disagreement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The widely expected Wednesday cut from the Fed is poised to feature disagreement, however, as there are just 3% odds of having no dissenters at the meeting. Indeed, Governor Stephen Miran will likely favor a deeper reduction of 50 basis points, while others on the committee are going to point to 3% inflation as evidence that the economy is overheating and that it doesn\u2019t need accommodation. There is an 8%, 28%, <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=806285268%7C20251210%7C4%7CDecember%2010,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">40%<\/a> and 18% probability of exactly 1, 2, 3 and 4 voting members that formally disagree with the decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"84\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-2-1100x84.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking how many FOMC members will dissent from December 10 rate decision\" class=\"wp-image-235671 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-2-1100x84.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-2-700x54.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-2-300x23.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-2-768x59.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-2.jpg 1397w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/84;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"450\" height=\"399\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5.jpg\" alt=\"Odds of number of FOMC members dissenting according to IBKR ForecastTrader.\" class=\"wp-image-235672 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5.jpg 450w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-300x266.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 450px; aspect-ratio: 450\/399;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hassett-still-favored-to-be-next-chair\"><strong>Hassett Still Favored to Be Next Chair<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is still strongly favored to be nominated as the next Chair of the Fed even though his odds dropped from a record high of 90% to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">76%<\/a>. Trailing him are Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent and Michelle Bowman, who are carrying probabilities of 9%, 5%, 5% and 4%. Approximately 20k contracts are open tied to President Trump\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"909\" height=\"402\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-nominee.jpg\" alt=\"Historical probabilities of Kevin Hassett being appointed as Fed Chair\" class=\"wp-image-235673 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-nominee.jpg 909w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-nominee-700x310.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-nominee-300x133.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-nominee-768x340.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 909px) 100vw, 909px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 909px; aspect-ratio: 909\/402;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"455\" height=\"520\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-nominee-2.jpg\" alt=\"Probabilities of different candidates being nominated as Fed chair. \" class=\"wp-image-235674 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-nominee-2.jpg 455w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-nominee-2-300x343.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 455px) 100vw, 455px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 455px; aspect-ratio: 455\/520;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 8, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Saturday and Sunday, December 5 and 6, ForecastEx saw trading volumes exceed 13 million contracts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":233123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[410,20908,446],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-235665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bitcoin","tag-daily-high-temperatures","tag-federal-reserve","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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