{"id":235553,"date":"2025-12-04T14:22:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T19:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235553"},"modified":"2025-12-04T19:54:02","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T00:54:02","slug":"2028-presidential-election-contract-gains-popularity-dec-4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/2028-presidential-election-contract-gains-popularity-dec-4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"2028 Presidential Election Contract Gains Popularity: Dec. 4, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s trading volume on ForecastEx was just shy of 3.5 million and participation was strong across a wide variety of themes. Some of the largest single trades involved the highest daily temperatures in Houston, San Francisco, <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=828647185%7C20251205%7C48%7CDecember%204,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dallas <\/a>and Denver, the Fed\u2019s interest rate <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=791099755%7C20251210%7C4%7CDecember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">decision<\/a> on Wednesday and whether a Republican or Democrat will win the 2028 <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=745923978%7C20290107%7C1%7C2028&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">presidential election<\/a>. Meanwhile, I\u2019m highlighting some trade ideas beneath for economic indicators in Canada and the US that expire tomorrow and I believe offer undervalued opportunities to participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"83\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-1100x83.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader contract regarding highest Dallas temperature on December 4.\" class=\"wp-image-235554 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-1100x83.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-700x53.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-768x58.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-1536x116.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-12-2048x155.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/83;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"85\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-1100x85.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader contract asking if Fed will lower the rate this month. \" class=\"wp-image-235555 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-1100x85.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-700x54.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-768x59.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-1536x119.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-13-2048x159.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/85;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-1100x86.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader contract regarding asking if Republican will win the US presidential election in 2028.\" class=\"wp-image-235556 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-1100x86.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-768x60.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-1536x121.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-14-2048x161.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-doubt-that-canadian-unemployment-rises-by-0-4-m-m\"><strong>Doubt That Canadian Unemployment Rises By 0.4% M\/M<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>August 2022 was the last time Canada\u2019s unemployment rate jumped by 0.4% month over month (m\/m) or more, and in consideration of the latest 6.9% joblessness figure, investors may want to consider forecast positions that potentially profit from the historical tendencies. Top of mind is the 7.2% <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=773080482%7C20251205%7C7.2%7CNovember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo,<\/a>\u201d which will require a 0.4% m\/m climb to lose money. I find the pricing undervalued at $0.84, since I think its cost should be closer to $0.96. Furthermore, the \u201cNo\u201d at 7.3% is additionally compelling; it\u2019s going for $0.94. Finally, across 259 observations going back 21 years, the m\/m change has been 0.4% or higher in just 12 occurrences, or 4.6% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-1100x80.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader contract asking if Canada unemployment will exceed 7.2% in November. \" class=\"wp-image-235557 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-1100x80.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-700x51.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-768x56.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-1536x112.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-15-2048x149.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"801\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16-1100x801.png\" alt=\"Historical Canadian unemployment rate\" class=\"wp-image-235558 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16-1100x801.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16-1536x1118.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-16.png 1712w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/801;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"558\" height=\"668\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-17.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR contracts regarding Canadian unemployment rate\" class=\"wp-image-235559 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-17.png 558w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-17-300x359.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 558px; aspect-ratio: 558\/668;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-pce-is-well-telegraphed\"><strong>PCE is Well Telegraphed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is well telegraphed by Wall Street because critical inputs for it are made previously available in the Consumer and Producer inflation gauges, which are released earlier in the month. The core gauge is expected to remain at 2.9% and the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=812132626%7C20251205%7C2.9%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at that level is undervalued at $0.75, in my opinion. Furthermore, my estimate is at 2.86%, making a downside surprise increasingly possible. But the thresholds from 2.4% to 2.7% are pretty unreachable in my view, and I find the risk-reward of the \u201cYeses\u201d attractive there; they\u2019re costing between $0.87 and $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"84\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-1100x84.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader contract regarding US Core PCE index for September.\" class=\"wp-image-235560 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-1100x84.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-700x53.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-768x59.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-1536x117.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-18-2048x156.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/84;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"698\" height=\"892\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-19.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding US Core PCE.\" class=\"wp-image-235561 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-19.png 698w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-19-300x383.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 698px; aspect-ratio: 698\/892;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-overall-pce-2-5-on-board\"><strong>Overall PCE 2.5% On Board<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The overall PCE is expected to come in at 2.8% and a drop to 2.5% is not in the cards. The \u201cYes\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=726203930%7C20251205%7C2.5%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.5%<\/a> is undervalued at $0.97, since it should be off the board in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"82\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-1100x82.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader contract regarding US PCE index for September.\" class=\"wp-image-235562 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-1100x82.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-700x52.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-768x57.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-1536x114.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/image-20-2048x152.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/82;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 4, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-admin\/edit-comments.php\">Comments 88 Comments in moderation<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday\u2019s trading volume on ForecastEx was just shy of 3.5 million and participation was strong across a wide variety of themes. Some of the largest single trades involved the highest daily temperatures in Houston, San Francisco, Dallas and Denver, the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision on Wednesday and whether a Republican or Democrat will win the 2028 presidential election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214697,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-235553","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2028 Presidential Election Contract Gains Popularity: Dec. 4, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s trading volume on ForecastEx was just shy of 3.5 million and participation was strong across a wide variety of themes. Some of the largest...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235553\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2028 Presidential Election Contract Gains Popularity: Dec. 4, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s trading volume on ForecastEx was just shy of 3.5 million and participation was strong across a wide variety of themes. Some of the largest single trades involved the highest daily temperatures in Houston, San Francisco, Dallas and Denver, the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision on Wednesday and whether a Republican or Democrat will win the 2028 presidential election.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/2028-presidential-election-contract-gains-popularity-dec-4-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T19:22:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-05T00:54:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/election-voting-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" 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