{"id":235533,"date":"2025-12-04T11:46:43","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T16:46:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235533"},"modified":"2025-12-05T04:59:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T09:59:50","slug":"a-short-take-on-real-world-pairs-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/a-short-take-on-real-world-pairs-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"A Short Take on Real-World Pairs Trading"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The article &#8220;A Short Take on Real-World Pairs Trading&#8221; was originally posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/robotwealth.com\/a-short-take-on-real-world-pairs-trading\/\">Robot Wealth<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In textbooks, one often sees pairs trading algorithms start by regressing prices of Asset A on Asset B to calculate a hedge ratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ve rarely seen anyone actually do this in the real world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s because it is a very unstable thing \u2013 especially for a pair of volatile assets, and especially over a large amount of data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The basic pairs trading algorithm which you see out in the real world doesn\u2019t attempt to do this. Instead, you do the following (or something like it):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>calculate the ratio of the stock prices<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>apply a moving average to that ratio<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>apply standard deviation to that ratio<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>calculate z-score levels to trade<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>when placing a trade, allocate the same margin to both legs at the price when you open the trade.\u00a0<em>(i.e. assign equal $ weight to each leg if it is a stock)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The thinking is the following\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>if it reverts, it reverts, however I calculate the hedge ratio \u2013 so I\u2019m just going to assign equal risk exposure to each leg and save myself some hassle.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This simple approach tends to work well for equities and similar futures contracts. (i.e. different stock indexes or bonds of different durations).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where you have two totally different things&nbsp;<em>(you\u2019re spreading JGBs against copper because you\u2019re a maniac, for example\u2026 and yes, I did this once upon a time\u2026.)<\/em>&nbsp;then you can still make the simple approaches work by weighting the ratio by something sensible like the ratio of the realised or implied volatility of each leg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The main lesson from this is that the smartest-seeming thing is often not the best in trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In academic land, you often see people calculating hedge ratios using dynamic linear models (Kalman filters, etc), copulas, genetic algorithms, etc. When I started out, I did all of these things as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In the real world, where implementation, scalability and profitability are prioritised, the simpler approach tends to win out.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In textbooks, one often sees pairs trading algorithms start by regressing prices of Asset A on Asset B to calculate a hedge ratio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":271,"featured_media":169217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[339,338,341],"tags":[20884,4272,3625,8445,20885,9531,20886,1048,2308,860,4270],"contributors-categories":[13676],"class_list":["post-235533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-data-science","category-ibkr-quant-news","category-quant-development","tag-hedge-ratio","tag-kalman-filter","tag-moving-average","tag-pairs-trading","tag-regression","tag-risk-exposure","tag-scalability","tag-standard-deviation","tag-trading-algorithms","tag-volatility","tag-z-score","contributors-categories-robot-wealth"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium 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