{"id":235531,"date":"2025-12-04T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235531"},"modified":"2025-12-04T14:42:23","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T19:42:23","slug":"what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/","title":{"rendered":"What History Says About the Next Rate Move"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With unemployment low, the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;risk management&#8221; cuts in 2025 echo 1998 and 2019. In both prior cycles, the Fed cut rates three times, then paused. Dr. Mark Shore, CME Group Economist breaks down the historical precedent for a potential cut in December and what it means for Treasury and equity markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted December 3, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With unemployment low, the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;risk management&#8221; cuts in 2025 echo 1998 and 2019. In both prior cycles, the Fed cut rates three times, then paused. Dr. Mark Shore, CME Group Economist breaks down the historical precedent for a potential cut in December and what it means for Treasury and equity markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1693,"featured_media":235563,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,18,6,8,9,3,25],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13577],"class_list":{"0":"post-235531","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"category-video-articles","14":"contributors-categories-cme-group"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What History Says About the Next Rate Move<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235531\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What History Says About the Next Rate Move | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With unemployment low, the Fed&#039;s &quot;risk management&quot; cuts in 2025 echo 1998 and 2019. In both prior cycles, the Fed cut rates three times, then paused. Dr. Mark Shore, CME Group Economist breaks down the historical precedent for a potential cut in December and what it means for Treasury and equity markets.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T15:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T19:42:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Mark Shore\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Mark Shore\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Dr. Mark Shore\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e6a5810b7276a246ecae8f462fed0b07\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"What History Says About the Next Rate Move\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2025-12-04T15:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2025-12-04T19:42:23+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 62,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/maxresdefault-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Fixed Income\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\",\n\t                \"Video Articles\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"What History Says About the Next Rate Move | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/maxresdefault-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2025-12-04T15:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2025-12-04T19:42:23+00:00\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/maxresdefault-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/maxresdefault-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"width\": 1280,\n\t            \"height\": 720\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e6a5810b7276a246ecae8f462fed0b07\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Dr. Mark Shore\",\n\t            \"honorificPrefix\": \"Dr.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/mark1shore\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"What History Says About the Next Rate Move","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235531\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What History Says About the Next Rate Move | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"With unemployment low, the Fed's \"risk management\" cuts in 2025 echo 1998 and 2019. In both prior cycles, the Fed cut rates three times, then paused. Dr. Mark Shore, CME Group Economist breaks down the historical precedent for a potential cut in December and what it means for Treasury and equity markets.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2025-12-04T15:30:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-12-04T19:42:23+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":720,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr. Mark Shore","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Dr. Mark Shore","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr. Mark Shore","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/e6a5810b7276a246ecae8f462fed0b07"},"headline":"What History Says About the Next Rate Move","datePublished":"2025-12-04T15:30:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-12-04T19:42:23+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/"},"wordCount":62,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg","articleSection":["Fixed Income","Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Traders' Insight","Video Articles"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/","name":"What History Says About the Next Rate Move | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg","datePublished":"2025-12-04T15:30:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-12-04T19:42:23+00:00","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-history-says-about-the-next-rate-move\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg","width":1280,"height":720},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/e6a5810b7276a246ecae8f462fed0b07","name":"Dr. Mark Shore","honorificPrefix":"Dr.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/mark1shore\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/maxresdefault-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1693"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=235531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235531\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/235563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=235531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=235531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=235531"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=235531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}