Grayscale has shot down Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price crash predictions, predicting that the next major leg could take prices beyond prior records.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In its November market commentary published on Monday, Grayscale said Bitcoin’s 32% drop from its October peak fits the pattern of typical bull-market pullbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It noted that Bitcoin has posted declines of 10% or more about 50 times since 2010, making sharp drawdowns a recurring feature of its cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The firm’s latest report said investors often underestimate how common such moves are, even during strong cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The research team said it does not expect Bitcoin to enter a prolonged 2-3-year drawdown similar to past “cyclical” declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead, the firm highlighted that the current market structure di\ufb00ers from prior cycles due to the influence of exchange-traded products and corporate digital asset treasuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Grayscale said this shift reduces the relevance of the traditional four-year price rhythm tied to Bitcoin’s supply halving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The firm also pointed to the absence of a parabolic rally in the latest cycle \u2014 a pattern that previously preceded multi-year crashes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It said this moderation, combined with evolving market participation, supports a more constructive outlook for 2025 and 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Grayscale noted that Bitcoin put-option skew remains elevated across three and six-month tenors, signaling active downside hedging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The firm said such positioning has historically appeared near market lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also highlighted that major digital asset treasuries are trading at discounts to their net asset values, which may reflect reduced speculative exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the short-term picture is still mixed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Futures open interest has declined, and exchange-traded product flows were negative for most of November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On-chain data showed another spike in Coin Days Destroyed, indicating movement of older Bitcoin that may have belonged to longtime holders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Grayscale said a clearer bottom requires improvement in flows, stabilization in open interest, and a slowdown in “OG” selling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies outperformed the broader market in November, with Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC), Monero (CRYPTO: XMR), and Decred (CRYPTO: DCR) posting double-digit gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rally reflected increased developer activity around privacy tools being built within the Ethereum ecosystem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Grayscale said privacy is emerging as a defining theme for the next stage of digital asset utility, citing new frameworks and Layer-2 developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The firm said XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) exchange-traded products began trading under new SEC listing standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It said the change expands institutional access to large-cap tokens and broadens the eligible universe for regulated products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The report said the broader backdrop remains favorable, with investors watching the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting for a possible rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lower real interest rates typically weigh on the U.S. Dollar and support alternative assets including Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Grayscale also cited ongoing bipartisan work on crypto market-structure legislation, saying progress could attract further institutional capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Senate Agriculture Committee released draft text in November, and analysts expect more movement next year if the issue avoids partisan gridlock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although valuations have lagged sector growth this year, Grayscale said long-term fundamentals should eventually converge with market pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The firm emphasized that the most significant gains historically accrued to long-term holders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bitcoin on Tuesday bounced from the $84,000 support zone for the second time, reinforcing this level as the primary downside barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Buyers stepped in aggressively during the recent dip, yet the cryptocurrency still trades below a descending trendline near $92,000 to $93,000 that rejected multiple rallies in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A breakout above $93,000 would shift momentum upward, with follow-through levels at $97,300 and $100,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Supertrend indicator sits near $97,335 and the Parabolic SAR around $92,974, underscoring the importance of these areas for trend confirmation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Bitcoin loses the $84,000 floor, the next supports appear at $78,000 and $72,000. Market technicians warn that the gap between these levels could lead to a fast decline if selling intensifies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bitcoin remains confined between $84,000 and $93,000, with traders watching for a decisive move to determine the next phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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