{"id":235394,"date":"2025-12-02T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235394"},"modified":"2025-12-03T02:47:39","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T07:47:39","slug":"from-underdog-to-outperformer-intcs-stunning-2025-comeback-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/from-underdog-to-outperformer-intcs-stunning-2025-comeback-explained\/","title":{"rendered":"From Underdog to Outperformer: INTC\u2019s Stunning 2025 Comeback Explained"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Although predictable, Intel\u2019s remarkable 100% year-to-date rally raises a question for investors: is it time to take profits, or is the company\u2019s turnaround only beginning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Year-to-date, domestic chipmaker Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) significantly outperformed NVDA stock at 100.5% vs 28% respectively. As one of our most covered semiconductor stocks, this is not surprising.<br><br>Over the years, we\u2019ve consistently noted that Intel enjoys strategic protection, despite its cyclical shortcomings in deploying chips against fabless competitors like AMD. Specifically, we\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/whats-the-real-story-behind-the-intel-acqusition-rumors\/\">laid out in January when INTC was trading at $22.12 per share,<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cIntel should be viewed as too big\/important to fail.\u201d<br><br>Following President Trump\u2019s personal attacks on Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, we\u2019ve also maintained that Intel has strong positioning in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/intel-inside-how-the-trump-admins-turnaround-ups-the-chipmakers-value\/\">US hegemony tech stack<\/a>. Likewise, in late October, we outlined\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/intc-key-factors-driving-intels-stock-surge-to-38\/\">key drivers<\/a>\u00a0pushing Intel\u2019s stock toward $38 per share.<br><br>At press time, INTC stock is trading at $40.01. Altogether, Intel is a good reminder to have exposure to purported underdogs while limiting exposure to hyped stocks like Nvidia. But at this point, is it time to lock in profits?<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-examining-upcoming-intel-narratives\">Examining Upcoming Intel Narratives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In March, we noted that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/why-intel-18a-is-a-make-or-break-moment-for-the-chipmaker\/\">Intel 18A node process deployment<\/a>&nbsp;is a make-or-break milestone for the company. After years of lagging and technical hiccups with the Raptor Lake lineup, the Panther Lake architecture built upon two novelties \u2013 RibbonFET and PowerVia \u2013 which already started with Intel 20A in the \u201cangstrom era\u201d.<br>Together, they directly challenge TSMC\u2019s dominance in power efficiency. Specifically, it competes against TSMC\u2019s N2 (2nm) node tech.<br>Not fully leveraging 18A would mean missing the technological \u201cbeat\u201d, which would set the company back long-term, as it happened during the beleaguered rollout of 10nm node. This will become clearer as we go further into 2026.<br>Although chips at this level of complexity are subject to higher&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/silicon-leverage-trump-tsmc-and-the-new-chip-power-play\/\">silicon lottery<\/a>, as we explained in early August, we also noted that silicon yield is likely to improve on a monthly basis. At November\u2019s RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications (TIMT) conference, Intel\u2019s VP John Pitzer reported a 7% monthly 18A yield ramp-up.<br>This aligns with the industry average and puts the Panther Lake lineup on schedule for mass volume production. When it comes to 14A development as the followup, Pitzer noted that it is in even better shape than 18A.<br>\u201cIf you look at where we are today on 14A on performance and yield versus a similar point of development on 18A, we\u2019re significantly further ahead on 14. So we\u2019re feeling very good about 14.\u201d<br><br>In the meantime, it appears that Apple is in the process of qualifying Intel 18A for its lowest-end M-series processor, according to analyst&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mingchikuo\/status\/1994422001952555318\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ming-Chi Kuo on X<\/a>. These chips are used in iPad Pro and MacBook Air, with combined expected shipments up to 20 million units in 2026 and into 2027, following 20 million units shipped in 2025.<br>Such a move fits perfectly into the wider narrative. As we explained recently in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/apples-foldable-iphone-too-late-to-the-party-or-timed-for-perfection\/\">Apple foldable coverage<\/a>, Apple enjoys a privileged status as well. Not only did President Trump exempt Apple from several tariffs but he continued the Huawei ban, Apple\u2019s fierce competitor.<br>In return for such boons, it would make sense Apple would boost domestic chip-making capacity at the benefit of Intel, in which USG has a 9.9% stake. As always, it is prudent to view the American economic system as highly centralized and planned, similar to China\u2019s. Additionally, although Taiwan\u2019s TSMC is effectively a part of the US military protectorate, it still remains a liability, being situated next to mainland China.<br>Mid-2020, Apple announced its departure from Intel after a 15-year partnership due to TSMC being ahead of Intel in node process deployment. Conversely, a return would signal Intel\u2019s renewed competitiveness and ability to meet Apple\u2019s strict performance and efficiency standards.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-intel-foundry-still-bleeding-but-financials-improving\">Intel Foundry Still Bleeding but Financials Improving<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Q3 earnings report delivered in late October, Intel\u2019s revenue grew 3% year-over-year to $13.7 billion. From the year-ago quarter, the company\u2019s gross margin improved 23.2 points, while its R&amp;D and administrative expenses went down significantly, by 20%.<br>It appears that<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/intels-new-hope-is-lip-bu-tan-the-perfect-match\/\">&nbsp;Lip-Bu Tan\u2019s restructuring plan is working<\/a>, as he promised to lower operating expenses by $500 million in 2025 and $1 billion during 2026, in particular by eliminating the middle management bloat. Although Intel Foundry division suffered a $2.3 billion operating loss in Q3, it is a drastic improvement over the $5.8 billion loss in the year-ago quarter.<br><br>Of all Intel\u2019s business divisions, only Data Center and AI (DCAI) and Foundry were down at 1% and 2% annual decrease respectively. Intel\u2019s Client Computing Group (CCG) continues to be the core of the company, delivering $8.5 billion revenue at 5% YoY growth.<br>Although DCAI revenue dipped 1% year-over-year, Intel\u2019s expanding collaboration with Nvidia and ongoing government and SoftBank backing should meaningfully accelerate growth in upcoming quarters. After all, the $500 billion hyperscaling Stargate AI initiative \u2013 initially launched by Oracle, OpenAI and Softbank \u2013 is only starting to ramp up.<br>In the long-run, regardless of the midterms and President Trump\u2019s plummeting ratings, investors should see a bipartisan continuity of \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Americas-AI-Action-Plan.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">America\u2019s AI Action Plan<\/a>\u201d, published by the White House in July. That\u2019s because interests building up the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/ai-meets-the-military-industrial-complex-3-companies-to-watch\/\">AI military industrial complex<\/a>&nbsp;are not beholden to the political class and its PR-facing electoral cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-bottom-line\">The Bottom Line<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/3-stocks-benefiting-from-the-ai-driven-memory-market-frenzy\/\">skyrocketing prices of memory modules<\/a>, making it the worst period to build PCs, Intel\u2019s CCG division is likely to face a revenue decline in Q4, a seasonally softer quarter even under normal conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nonetheless, Intel has a lot going for it beyond Q4 \u2013 leadership imposing financial discipline, sound roadmap, bullish AI infrastructure narrative, and Apple returning to the fold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the end, it all comes back to the wider picture we laid out a year-ago, in which&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/nvidia-and-the-ai-bubble-is-it-real\/\">AI-powered algorithmic control<\/a>&nbsp;is the holy grail of governance. In that picture, there is no way Intel is not a beneficiary as the only US chipmaking company preparing for global scaling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted December 2, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/from-underdog-to-outperformer-intcs-stunning-2025-comeback-explained\/\">From Underdog to Outperformer: INTC\u2019s Stunning 2025 Comeback Explained<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Although predictable, Intel\u2019s remarkable 100% year-to-date rally raises a question for investors: is it time to take profits, or is the company\u2019s turnaround only beginning?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":501,"featured_media":15932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13710],"class_list":{"0":"post-235394","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-the-tokenist"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From Underdog to Outperformer: INTC\u2019s Stunning 2025 Comeback Explained<\/title>\n<meta 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