{"id":235346,"date":"2025-12-01T12:20:24","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T17:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235346"},"modified":"2025-12-01T14:23:42","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T19:23:42","slug":"trump-says-hes-chosen-the-next-fed-chair-forecasters-think-its-hassett","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/trump-says-hes-chosen-the-next-fed-chair-forecasters-think-its-hassett\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Says He\u2019s Chosen the Next Fed Chair, Forecasters Think It\u2019s Hassett: Dec. 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend on ForecastEx last Saturday and Sunday as 13.7 million contracts were traded across both days. The daily weather contracts covering the major US cities continued to be a big hit, as traders engaged with the likelihoods of what the hottest Fahrenheit temperatures will be on a given date. Other popular themes were which political party will gain majority control of the House of Representatives, will the Fed cut in December and who will be the nominee to lead the central bank. President Trump said yesterday that he\u2019s made his decision, and we have witnessed Kevin Hassett\u2019s odds, director of the National Economic Council, jump to a record of 88% this morning before paring some of those gains and settling in at 77%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"121\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-1100x121.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235354 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-1100x121.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-700x77.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-300x33.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1-768x85.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture1.jpg 1180w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/121;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"381\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235355 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2.jpg 723w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-700x369.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture2-300x158.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 723px; aspect-ratio: 723\/381;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-eurozone-cpi-trade-idea\"><strong>Eurozone CPI Trade Idea<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Eurozone\u2019s Consumer Price Index is expected to come in unchanged at 2.1% and sports a subdued deviation rate, meaning that historically, it tends to arrive near the median estimate. Indeed, it rarely misses or beats by more than 0.1% in either direction and against that backdrop the \u201cNo\u201d trades at 2.2% and 2.3%, priced at $0.86 and $0.94, offer favorable risk-reward dynamics in my opinion. They require the result to exceed estimates by 0.2% and\/or 0.3% to lose money, rare occurrences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"140\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-euro-1100x140.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235356 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-euro-1100x140.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-euro-700x89.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-euro-300x38.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-euro-768x98.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture3-euro.jpg 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/140;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"517\" height=\"692\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235357 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4.jpg 517w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture4-300x402.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 517px) 100vw, 517px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 517px; aspect-ratio: 517\/692;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-eurozone-unemployment-expected-to-come-in-unchanged\"><strong>Eurozone Unemployment Expected to Come in Unchanged<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Eurozone\u2019s October unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.3% and the \u201cNo\u201d at that particular level offers value to participants in my opinion. The trade is profitable in two out of three instances, whether joblessness drops or remains the same, but it loses if the indicator increases. Additionally, the figure hasn\u2019t exceeded 6.3% since August of last year and the monthly Reuters poll of 33 forecasters all project a flat number.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"117\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-euro-unemployment-1100x117.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235358 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-euro-unemployment-1100x117.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-euro-unemployment-700x75.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-euro-unemployment-300x32.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-euro-unemployment-768x82.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture5-euro-unemployment.jpg 1465w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/117;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-lack-of-gasoline-volatility-presents-opportunity\"><strong>Lack of Gasoline Volatility Presents Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Real-time prices of gasoline and crude oil futures signal a modest increase in retail costs to about $3.08 in the week ending today versus the $3.061 reported in the prior period. The $2.90 \u201cYes\u201d and $3.30 \u201cNo\u201d thresholds aren\u2019t in the cards for this week\u2019s publications considering a lack of volatility in recent days that would be necessary to reach those distant levels. Those trades offer favorable risk-reward dynamics since they should be off the board in my view but are available instead and costing $0.95 and $0.96.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"105\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-gasoline-1100x105.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235360 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-gasoline-1100x105.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-gasoline-700x67.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-gasoline-300x29.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-gasoline-768x74.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture6-gasoline.jpg 1326w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/105;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"515\" height=\"471\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-last.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235361 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-last.jpg 515w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/Picture7-last-300x274.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 515px) 100vw, 515px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 515px; aspect-ratio: 515\/471;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 1, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend on ForecastEx last Saturday and Sunday as 13.7 million contracts were traded across both days. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":184479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18048,144],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-235346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-eurozone-cpi","tag-weather","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump Says He\u2019s Chosen the Next Fed Chair, Forecasters Think It\u2019s Hassett: Dec. 1, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend on ForecastEx last Saturday and Sunday as 13.7 million contracts were traded across both days.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235346\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump Says He\u2019s Chosen the Next Fed Chair, Forecasters Think It\u2019s Hassett: Dec. 1, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend on ForecastEx last Saturday and Sunday as 13.7 million contracts were traded across both days.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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