{"id":235303,"date":"2025-11-28T12:51:17","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T17:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235303"},"modified":"2025-12-01T11:03:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T16:03:12","slug":"24-7-forecast-daily-weather-dec-fed-decision-and-the-midterm-house-election-saw-heavy-trading-volumes-on-thanksgiving-nov-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/24-7-forecast-daily-weather-dec-fed-decision-and-the-midterm-house-election-saw-heavy-trading-volumes-on-thanksgiving-nov-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"24\/7 Forecast: Daily Weather, Dec Fed Decision and the Midterm House Election Saw Heavy Trading Volumes on Thanksgiving: Nov. 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Trading volumes were lighter than usual on ForecastEx this Thanksgiving, as expected, but the 1.7 million contracts exchanged still signaled heavy engagement for a holiday. Indeed, while many markets were closed, the 24\/7 availability on ForecastEx allowed participants to express their views on the platform. Some of the dominant themes that investors engaged with yesterday were the daily weather in major US cities, the December Fed decision and whether the Democratic Party will win majority control in the House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Daily Weather Engagement Continues Soaring<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daily contracts asking whether the highest temperature in major US cities will exceed a specific Fahrenheit level have been surging in popularity. The engagement throughout cities has been variable, however, as some days features heavy trading in New York City or Miami, but today\u2019s leaders so far are Los Angeles and Denver. Indeed, over 100k contracts have been exchanged across each of those two cities with plenty of hours to go for the November 28<sup>th <\/sup>expiration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"108\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-47-1100x108.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235310 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-47-1100x108.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-47-700x69.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-47-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-47-768x75.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-47.png 1326w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/108;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"117\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-48-1100x117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235311 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-48-1100x117.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-48-700x74.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-48-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-48-768x81.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-48.png 1329w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/117;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fed Cut Trades at 90% On Thanksgiving<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Odds that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting traded at a new high of 90% on Thanksgiving. Enthusiasm has been robust, as the probability hasn\u2019t been below 80% since Monday, supported by several voting members voicing the need for additional monetary policy accommodation in light of decelerating labor conditions. The \u201cYes\u201d contract has fallen modestly; however, it\u2019s now at 85% with approximately 240k open contracts tied to next month\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"574\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-50-1100x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235313 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-50-1100x574.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-50-700x365.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-50-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-50-768x401.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-50.png 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/574;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Democrats Hold on To House Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Democratic Party is holding on to its strong lead in the 2026 House race that signals a greater chance that it will win majority control in Congress\u2019s lower chamber. The probability was just around 58% before November 4th\u2019s election day when governorships in Virgina and New Jersey, the mayorship in New York City and the passage of Proposition 50 in California were swept by Democrats, raising the odds that the party\u2019s candidates will perform well in the 2026 midterms. The likelihood of a Democrat flip sits at 71% at the moment, with approximately 467k contracts tied to the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"585\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-49-1100x585.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-235312 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-49-1100x585.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-49-700x372.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-49-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-49-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/image-49.png 1336w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading volumes were lighter than usual on ForecastEx this Thanksgiving, as expected, but the 1.7 million contracts exchanged still signaled heavy engagement for a holiday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,18929,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-235303","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-futures","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>24\/7 Forecast: Daily Weather, Dec Fed Decision 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still signaled heavy engagement for a holiday.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/24-7-forecast-daily-weather-dec-fed-decision-and-the-midterm-house-election-saw-heavy-trading-volumes-on-thanksgiving-nov-28-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-28T17:51:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-01T16:03:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/global-trade-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"24\/7 Forecast: Daily Weather, Dec Fed Decision and the Midterm House Election Saw Heavy Trading Volumes on Thanksgiving: Nov. 28, 2025","description":"Trading volumes were lighter than usual on ForecastEx this Thanksgiving, as expected, but the 1.7 million contracts exchanged still signaled 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