{"id":235286,"date":"2025-11-28T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235286"},"modified":"2025-12-01T05:14:41","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T10:14:41","slug":"hassett-emerges-as-trumps-top-fed-pick-heres-what-a-dovish-shift-could-mean-for-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/hassett-emerges-as-trumps-top-fed-pick-heres-what-a-dovish-shift-could-mean-for-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Hassett Emerges As Trump’s Top Fed Pick \u2014 Here’s What A Dovish Shift Could Mean For Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kevin Hassett<\/strong> has emerged as the clear frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell<\/strong> as Federal Reserve chair next May, a shift that could reshape U.S. monetary policy and affect global markets, particularly if Hassett brings a more dovish stance as expected.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Bloomberg report earlier this week sent predictive betting markets into a frenzy, with Polymarket odds of Hassett becoming the next Fed chair jumping from 25% to 57%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That puts him well ahead of Fed Governor Christopher Waller<\/strong>, the second-most-likely contender at 26%, who has consistently voted for rate cuts since diverging from the broader Fed board view last July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the White House has called the discussion speculative, Hassett\u2019s rise is unmistakable\u2014and investors are already taking notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Hassett Thinks About Tariffs and Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hassett, currently serving as Director of the National Economic Council, has challenged conventional Wall Street narratives on inflation, particularly regarding Donald Trump’s tariff policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent Bloomberg interview, he cited a San Francisco Federal Reserve paper that reviewed a century of trade policy and concluded tariffs tend to have a deflationary\u2014not inflationary\u2014impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWall Street has been quite wrong on their forecasts of inflation surge, which did not happen,\u201d Hassett said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re on track to hit 2.9% or 3% [core PCE inflation] at the end of this year.\u201d The PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hassett supports the idea that tariffs act as a demand-side shock, cooling spending and thus price growth\u2014an argument that dovetails with his broader reputation as a proponent of looser monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Markets Could React To A Hassett Appointment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Hassett is perceived as the candidate most aligned with the Trump administration’s views on interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“He’s clearly more dovish than the consensus on the committee right now,” Wilding said in a recent interview, noting that while Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026, Trump could install Hassett sooner through the expiring Steve Miran<\/strong> seat as early as January 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even if appointed, Hassett would need to convince other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to support any aggressive push for rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The committee is a democratic process,” Wilding said. “He will have to have some intellectual heft in terms of convincing the others on the committee.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Wilding it is no guarantee that Powell will leave the Fed board after stepping down as Chairman in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She warned that Fed efforts to push rates too low, too fast, could raise concerns about the long-term credibility, potentially steepening the yield curve if long-dated Treasury yields rise on inflation fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, said the news may trigger a further decline in the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Hassett is widely regarded as the most dovish candidate currently in the running\u2026 having previously voiced a preference for a much lower fed funds rate,” Ryan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though the dollar\u2019s move has been “relatively contained so far,” he warned that it could accelerate as Powell’s departure date draws closer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, added that Hassett’s dovish views could support further monetary easing, something that may concern bond investors wary of reaccelerating inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted November 28, 2025 – Hassett Is Trump’s Top Pick As Fed Chair: How Could Markets React? – StreetTRACKS Gold Shares – Benzinga<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kevin Hassett has emerged as the clear frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair next May, a shift that could reshape U.S. monetary policy and affect global markets, particularly if Hassett brings a more dovish stance as expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":32573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-235286","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHassett Emerges 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