{"id":235234,"date":"2025-11-26T12:57:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T17:57:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235234"},"modified":"2025-11-26T13:30:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T18:30:30","slug":"hassetts-odds-of-being-nominated-to-fed-reached-67","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/hassetts-odds-of-being-nominated-to-fed-reached-67\/","title":{"rendered":"Hassett\u2019s Odds of Being Nominated to Fed Reached 67%: Nov. 26, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, is now strongly favored to be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve. His odds have climbed steadily from 49% on Monday to as high at 67% today before stabilizing at 65%. Anecdotal evidence suggesting that Hassett is the front-runner on President Trump\u2019s list for Fed Chair sparked the trading action. Other potential choices include Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who\u2019s at 12%, current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman at 8% and 6% and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at 2%. North of 3k contracts are currently open that are tied to the selection of the next central bank head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Canada Housing \u201cYeses\u201d Are Undervalued<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the past 29 months going back to May 2023, Canada\u2019s New Housing Price Index only failed to exceed -0.3% month over month (m\/m) three times. Meanwhile the \u201cYes\u201d contracts at -0.3% and -0.4% are priced at just $0.06 and $0.18 and are significantly undervalued considering that my estimates place fair values north of $0.25 for the former and ahead of $0.40 for the latter. Participants may be focusing on the recent weakness in the indicator, but even in this year of sluggish performance, it has arrived above the -0.3% threshold in 7 out of 9 occurrences. $0.06 is too cheap folks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s Economy Expected to Recover<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s an expectation that the Canadian economy recovered from its 0.4% 2nd quarter decline in the subsequent period, with the IBKR ForecastTrader marketplace indicating that a number north of 0.2% carries odds of 57%, while a figure at or below that threshold is priced with a probability of 41%. Additionally, there\u2019s a 10% chance of a result above 0.6% and a 6% likelihood of a print at or beneath -0.2%. Meanwhile, another negative report, on an annualized basis, would land the nation in a technical recession, but the \u201cYes\u201d on that is at a modest 27%, signaling that participants believe that the expansion has resumed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 26, 2025.<\/em>  Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, is now strongly favored to be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-235234","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHassett\u2019s Odds of Being Nominated to Fed Reached 67%: 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