{"id":235149,"date":"2025-11-25T12:48:21","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T17:48:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235149"},"modified":"2025-11-25T15:50:41","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T20:50:41","slug":"forecast-expectations-for-tomorrows-economic-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-expectations-for-tomorrows-economic-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Expectations for Tomorrow\u2019s Economic Data: Nov. 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The economic calendar has begun to slowly normalize following the blockage of critical data due to the record-long government shutdown. And with the return of the pivotal statistics we\u2019re witnessing a comeback in forecast orders tied to the results of economic indicators. Tomorrow\u2019s list features new home sales and prices, building permits, the Dallas Fed\u2019s weekly economic index and South Korea\u2019s rate decision. Below I\u2019ll compare some of the expectations according to pricing in the IBKR prediction market as well as how they differ from consensus estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Home Sales to Slow<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Forecast Traders and the Wall Street consensus estimate expect a huge slowdown in new home sales. The 800k seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) from August are expected to fall to around 673k, according to the former source, which is calculated by the coin-flip level between the 71% \u201cYes\u201d at 650k<\/a> and the 40% “Yes” at 700k<\/a>. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg median estimate across surveyed economists is 710k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Prices To Remain Steady However<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast traders expect the median price of those new homes sold to remain near August\u2019s $413.5k, since the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> and \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> contract pricing at $410k and $415 of $0.57 and $0.66 indicate a coin-flip level between those two thresholds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Estimates Are Neck and Neck in Permits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to building permits, the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.34 million SAAU is neck and neck with the 1.34 million coin-flip level on the IBKR ForecastTrader<\/a>. A result in-line with expectations would mark a modest increase from August\u2019s 1.33 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Short-Term Growth to Remain Near Average<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast Trader pricing in the Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index points to a modest acceleration from the 2.29% indicated for the 7-day period ended on November 14. Indeed, there are 55% odds of a number north of 2.3%<\/a> hitting the wire, which would also be above the 13-week moving average of 2.27%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

South Korea to Hold Rates Steady<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of Korea is largely expected to keep its rate steady at its meeting this week, with a 95%<\/a> degree of confidence of an unchanged benchmark. Almost 4,000 contracts are open tied to the decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 25, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The economic calendar has begun to slowly normalize following the blockage of critical data due to the record-long government shutdown.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":58740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-235149","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast Expectations for Tomorrow\u2019s Economic Data: Nov. 25, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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