{"id":235063,"date":"2025-11-24T13:03:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T18:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235063"},"modified":"2025-11-25T03:53:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T08:53:35","slug":"fomo-battles-anti-fomo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/fomo-battles-anti-fomo\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMO Battles \u201cAnti-FOMO\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As I see it, there are two short term themes driving trading right now.&nbsp; They are: (1) a change toward institutional risk aversion, and (2) \u201cbuy and chase\u201d working alongside, if not ahead of \u201cbuy the dip\u201d. &nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s sort of a battle between FOMO and \u201canti-FOMO\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The former theme is an outgrowth or, better yet, a shift from the relentless institutional FOMO that drove big market inflows throughout most of this year. &nbsp; No institutional fund manager can afford to drastically underperform the market on the way up, so they had to own big cap tech whether they liked it or not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech is too big to ignore and too big to avoid. &nbsp;Its outperformance had led to a disproportionately high weighting in key indices, which in turn led to even more money flowing into the sector.&nbsp; Yet now, many of those same institutional investors are as concerned, if not more so, with making sure they have profits to lock in before the end of the year.&nbsp; That\u2019s changing market psychology and dynamics. (Maybe I\u2019ll call the phenomenon \u201cFOLI\u201d, or \u201cFear Of Locking In\u201d. Give me time to work on that.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for \u201cbuy and chase\u201d, that is indeed a manifestation of FOMO.&nbsp; If you\u2019ve been trying to buy the dip and miss the absolute bottom, well, you still might want to follow the trend.&nbsp; Doing so indiscriminately is a tacit way of saying \u201cI don\u2019t care about valuations, I just believe that someone will pay more than I am now.\u201d&nbsp; Never mind that we might have just read the definition of the \u201cgreater fool theory\u201d.&nbsp; This past year has taught many that there almost always IS someone who comes along to pay more.&nbsp; It\u2019s difficult to blame those who have come to expect that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chasing rallies becomes particularly treacherous in volatile markets, though.&nbsp; Reduced liquidity makes the swings larger in both directions.&nbsp; In volatile markets, market makers widen their spreads and cut back their sizes, thus reducing liquidity.&nbsp; I was a market maker for over 25 years, and this is what we did during periods of volatility.&nbsp; Hence, we get air pockets in both directions when traders rush in and out.&nbsp; In the short term, that actually increases volatility, creating a feedback loop.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets eventually calm down, and we might be beginning that calming process now.&nbsp; But funny things can happen during short weeks \u2013 we are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and have a half-day on Friday to facilitate either recovery from a food coma and\/or rushing to the mall for Black Friday bargains.&nbsp; It is difficult to expect the holiday period to improve liquidity conditions, especially with month-end positioning arriving three hours earlier than usual on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, another factor affecting today\u2019s trading is a newfound quirk of seasonality.&nbsp; With apologies to <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/FXxP17ga4wo\">the Boomtown Rats<\/a>, Mr. Market DOES like Mondays, at least lately.&nbsp; Last Monday\u2019s decline broke a streak of 10 gains to start the week dating back to Labor Day.&nbsp; That itself is a testament to investors\u2019 ability to look at the glass as \u201chalf-full\u201d.&nbsp; Heck, if we\u2019re going to up during any given week, why not start the week properly by going long, right?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are solid reasons for a bounce today.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/john-williams-changes-the-tune\/\">Rate cut expectations have improved<\/a> to over 70% on both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">the CME<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=791099755%7C20251210%7C4%7C\">ForecastEx<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-to-the-rescue-but-bitcoin-spoils-the-fun\/\">bitcoin is generally cooperating<\/a> with the risk-on mood.&nbsp; If you\u2019re adding to positions based on those factors, it\u2019s quite understandable.&nbsp; If you\u2019re blindly chasing today\u2019s rally simply because you don\u2019t want to miss a tradeable bounce, or if you simply think that someone will model your behavior at higher prices, then please be judicious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As I see it, there are two short term themes driving trading right now.  They are: (1) a change toward institutional risk aversion, and (2) \u201cbuy and chase\u201d working alongside, if not ahead of \u201cbuy the dip\u201d.   It\u2019s sort of a battle between FOMO and \u201canti-FOMO\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":114537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-235063","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FOMO Battles \u201cAnti-FOMO\u201d | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As I see it, there are two short term themes driving trading right now. 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