{"id":235025,"date":"2025-11-24T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235025"},"modified":"2025-11-25T04:07:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T09:07:27","slug":"running-on-renewed-rate-cut-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/running-on-renewed-rate-cut-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Running on renewed rate cut optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Briefing.com Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*The stock market is back in good spirits amid renewed optimism about a December rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Alphabet is up 4%, running on positive reviews of its Gemini 3 model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Airlines are predicting a record number of Thanksgiving travelers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market enjoyed a needed rebound effort on Friday, and\u2014what a surprise\u2014the catalyst for the recovery was a shift in rate cut expectations for the December FOMC meeting. New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) made it happen, noting that he sees room for a near-term adjustment to the target range for the fed funds rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There was an assumption that his view was a plant of sorts to offset the views of some of the more hawkish-minded participants, who have been more vocal of late about possibly holding off on a rate cut in December.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No matter the angle, one could see in the fed funds futures market that the Williams view won out on Friday. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December went from less than 40% to north of 70% after his remark, notwithstanding that three other officials\u2014Collins, Hammack, and Logan\u2014all suggested another rate cut in December could probably wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market maintained its renewed optimism about a rate cut over the weekend. The probability of one sits at 73.5% this morning, according to the CME FedWatchTool. Coincidentally, the equity futures market is pointing to a higher open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 210 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 113 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buy-the-dip interest has been spurred by Friday&#8217;s rebound effort, and it is being supported by leadership from the mega-cap space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Alphabet (GOOG\/GOOGL)<\/strong>&nbsp;is up 4%, continuing to run on positive reviews of its Gemini 3 model that are helping its standing in the AI leadership\/market share race.&nbsp;<strong>Tesla (TSLA)<\/strong>, for its part, is up 2%, with Elon Musk touting the company&#8217;s AI chip production efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rest of the &#8220;Magnificent 7&#8221; are higher, so there is a lot of weight underpinning the early action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is setting the tone for the broader market at the start of this holiday-shortened week that will feature several Treasury auctions, starting with a $69 billion 2-yr note auction today, and the September PPI and September Retail Sales reports on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There will also be a lot of traveling this week. Airlines are predicting a record number of Thanksgiving travelers, according to&nbsp;<em>CNBC<\/em>. On a related note, the stock market will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday and will have an abbreviated session on Friday, with an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Briefing.com Summary:<\/p>\n<p>*The stock market is back in good spirits amid renewed optimism about a December rate cut.<\/p>\n<p>*Alphabet is up 4%, running on positive reviews of its Gemini 3 model.<\/p>\n<p>*Airlines are predicting a record number of Thanksgiving travelers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":225598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-235025","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Running on renewed rate cut optimism | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Briefing.com Summary:*The stock market is back in good spirits amid renewed optimism about a December rate cut.*Alphabet is up 4%, running on positive...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Running on renewed rate cut optimism | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Briefing.com Summary:*The stock market is back in good spirits amid renewed optimism about a December rate cut.*Alphabet is up 4%, running on positive reviews of its Gemini 3 model.*Airlines are predicting a record number of Thanksgiving travelers.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/running-on-renewed-rate-cut-optimism\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-24T14:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-25T09:07:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/interest-rates-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. 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