{"id":235017,"date":"2025-11-24T09:17:24","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:17:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=235017"},"modified":"2025-11-25T04:15:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T09:15:11","slug":"chart-advisor-not-the-bullish-case-for-the-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-not-the-bullish-case-for-the-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Not the Bullish Case for the Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Gordon Scott, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ So You\u2019re Saying You Are Triggered by Shampoo?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Volatility Whipping Back and Forth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Digital Currency or Chicken Little?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So You\u2019re Saying You Are Triggered by Shampoo?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market, according to old school technical analysts, might be about to take a hard left turn downhill. Of course this sentiment assumes a potential forecast here that may be inappropriately early, but it demonstrates the usefulness of knowing something about technical analysis. After all, if you were about to lose a trillion dollars, wouldn\u2019t you want to be warned about it in advance? Friday\u2019s charts might have just done that. The S&P 500, as tracked by State Street\u2019s ETF (SPY) could be headed over a cliff.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Is there a fundamental reason to expect this scenario to play out? Maybe, but not one where you could specifically say just how intense it might be in a period as brief as, say, the next six week. That kind of forecast comes exclusively from the pages of old school technical analysis in the form of a Head and Shoulders pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure your analyst friend might walk up to you in Rancourt Black Shell Cordovan wingtips, or 120 pump patent Louboutins, within the shadow of a Harvard degree, and tell you to stop talking about shampoo trades in polite company. But in your best Happy Gilmore voice, you can simply say: \u201cIf I saw myself in clothes like that I\u2019d have to\u2026\u201d Scratch that. Better just hand them this chart along with the next two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Volatility Whipping Back and Forth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course no one knows the future, but if Shakira can get paid for saying Hips Don\u2019t Lie, surely an option market maker should get paid for pointing out that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn\u2019t either. The option markets do the work of putting a price to anticipated risk. When traders pile into put options on the S&P 500\u2014basically buying crash insurance\u2014the market\u2019s fear meter perks up. Lately the VIX isn\u2019t just twitching, it\u2019s swinging as wildly as the aforementioned singer\u2019s midsection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two items of interest jump out from this chart. First, the VIX has been trending higher for several weeks. The first of those weeks SPY prices were trending higher. Second, VIX levels may not have yet found their top since the latest swing has yet to close below a 50% retracement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically VIX remaining above 20 is still a bearish sentiment. The 50% retracement wouldn\u2019t even make it below that level. Therefore it appears there is a good chance the selling isn\u2019t done yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Digital Currency or Chicken Little?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surely you\u2019ve heard that funny saying that goes \u201cIf cauliflower can be pizza, you can be anything!\u201d It makes you laugh a lot more than it makes you optimistic. I\u2019m guessing the market felt something similar when someone, somewhere probably said, \u201cIf Bitcoin can have a two-trillion dollar market cap, surely our 401(k) is safe, right?\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um, actually no. This logarithmic chart kind of masks the coming pain, so you have to look close at the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Head and Shoulders patterns don\u2019t truly forecast that prices will fall. Mostly they document when they have already fallen. The degree with which a Head and Shoulders pattern rightly calls out a pending crash in price is only slightly better than random. The pattern, especially as it develops, is a much better indication that a trend change might be underway. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When this indication appears and is accompanied by related fundamental trends or intermarket pricing, it can be a highly useful signal to take protective measures in your portfolio. This pattern points to the possibility that Bitcoin could trade for under 50k by year\u2019s end, wiping out more than a trillion in market cap compared to recent highs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin has surely been a solid indication of risk sentiment among traders and investors over the past eight years. When many bitcoin holders stop thinking about holding on for dear life and start thinking that it is time to let go, you have to wonder what is going on around you. You have to ask why now? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is prudent to ask, is this a coming crisis? Or a great opportunity? Right about now the charts are telling us to steer carefully and avoid people whose shoes cost more than a sports car\u2019s lease payment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 24th November 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Gordon Scott, CMT 1\/ So You\u2019re Saying You Are Triggered by Shampoo? 2\/ Volatility Whipping Back and Forth 3\/ Digital Currency or Chicken Little? Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":235018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16727,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[8083,910,262,317],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-235017","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-etps","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-btcusd","18":"tag-sp-500","19":"tag-spy","20":"tag-vix","21":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Not the Bullish Case for the 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