{"id":234978,"date":"2025-11-21T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T18:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234978"},"modified":"2025-11-24T04:42:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T09:42:11","slug":"john-williams-changes-the-tune","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/john-williams-changes-the-tune\/","title":{"rendered":"John Williams Changes the Tune"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Today\u2019s theme music is a selection of John Williams\u2019 \u2013 the composer, not the central banker – themes.  Take your pick as to whether Indiana Jones<\/a>, Darth Vader<\/a>, or the shark from Jaws<\/a> is the best soundtrack for today.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This morning had the potential to be another nasty one.  A brief attempt at an overnight bounce faded, and many of us woke up to another combination of lower stock futures and bitcoin.  Then, in a speech in Chile<\/a>, New York Fed President John Williams improved the odds for a rate cut in December.  Stocks spent much of the first part of the session meandering around the unchanged line but then began a concerted move higher after European markets closed.  As we saw yesterday<\/a>, correlations can influence short-term market movements, but fundamentals still matter more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the phrase<\/a> that has calmed markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive…Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It sounds relatively benign, but it had a profound effect on the likelihood of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.  CME futures<\/a> are now indicating a roughly 65% probability for a cut on December 10th<\/sup>, nearly double yesterday\u2019s 35% chance.  ForecastEx traders<\/a> broadly agree, with a 63% \u201cyes\u201d for a 25-basis point cut at that meeting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of you might be wondering why a set of comments from a single regional Fed President would be sufficient to not only reverse markets\u2019 course, let alone send them zooming.  The turnaround, if not the zoom, can be explained by the New York Fed\u2019s outsized role at the Federal Open Markets Committee.  While 11 of the 12 regional Reserve Bank Presidents serve on the committee on a rotating basis, the New York Fed President has a permanent seat<\/a> because of its role in implementing the FOMC\u2019s policies via the capital markets.  Various Fed watchers refer to a \u201cleadership troika\u201d, consisting of the Fed Chair, Vice Chair, and NY Fed President.  Under that perception, it is clear why the views of a member of that group would seem to outweigh those of other FOMC members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the \u201czoom\u201d, well, that\u2019s up to traders and their habits.  We have noted not only traders\u2019 oft-rewarded propensity to buy dips, but to chase rallies<\/a>.  The former strategy is based upon perceptions that stocks, bonds, or any other tradeable instruments can become underpriced on a short- or long-term basis.  That assessment can be based on valuations or fleeting oversold conditions.  We can certainly debate whether traders have become overly dependent upon this strategy or whether it is being overused indiscriminately \u2013 there is a plausible case to be made for both \u2013 but dip buying is indeed rooted in an assessment of fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rally chasing, however, is rooted in the concept of momentum.  When a trend presents itself, it becomes quite simple to follow it.  It can also be seductive to follow that trend to the point where it becomes overextended.  When one does that, it means that prices can more easily become disjointed from valuations.  We have explained that<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 fundamentals don\u2019t really matter when momentum rules.  Price action, not the underlying justification for those prices, is all that\u2019s important.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frankly, I believe that rally chasing caused some of the trouble yesterday and is potentially setting us up for it once again today.  We were off to a solid start yesterday, thanks to a well-received earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA), but then traders extended that rally in the first hour of the day.  I will assert that the trading rally went beyond the solid fundamental report, making stocks more susceptible to a drop when the mood changed.  It is far too early to know if something similar will transpire again today, but we seem to have moved from a situation where a sober assessment of interest rate probabilities that calmed unsteady nerves into a Friday \u201cbuy and chase\u201d rally using expiring options as a catalyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2-Days, 2-Minute Candles, ES December Futures<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One reason for my skepticism about the sustainability of today\u2019s move comes from the nature of yesterday’s.  We experienced what technical analysts call a \u201cbearish outside reversal\u201d in the S&P 500 (SPX).  That occurs when a stock or index has a higher high than the prior days but finishes below the prior day\u2019s low.  That indicates a major change in short-term sentiment.  For reference, a \u201cbullish outside reversal\u201d occurred at the April lows in the post-tariff selloff.  I can\u2019t assert that a similar change in mindset occurred yesterday on a long-term basis \u2013 there were many other important factors that led to the April recovery \u2013 but I do believe that at least in the near term, traders need to be more prepared to sell rallies than buy dips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX 3-Months, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, I\u2019d like to share a clip from an impromptu media appearance that I made yesterday<\/a>.  A network producer asked for a reason behind yesterday\u2019s abrupt reversal, and she seemed to like what I had to say so much that she invited me to discuss it on air about an hour later.  I think it resonated. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This morning had the potential to be another nasty one.\u00a0 A brief attempt at an overnight bounce faded, and many of us woke up to another combination of lower stock futures and bitcoin.\u00a0 Then, in a speech in Chile, New York Fed President John Williams improved the odds for a rate cut in December.\u00a0 Stocks spent much of the first part of the session meandering around the unchanged line but then began a concerted move higher after European markets closed.\u00a0 As we saw yesterday, correlations can influence short-term market movements, but fundamentals still matter 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/fed-rates-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234978\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/234982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234978"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=234978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}