{"id":234954,"date":"2025-11-21T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234954"},"modified":"2025-11-24T05:10:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T10:10:15","slug":"ten-reasons-to-consider-buying-midstream-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/ten-reasons-to-consider-buying-midstream-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Ten Reasons To Consider Buying Midstream Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last week an investor asked us for ten reasons why they should commit funds to midstream energy infrastructure now. Typically, three or four bullet points will suffice to make the case, but in this case the request was for ten. Believe it or not, we were up to the challenge!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here they are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Valuations are attractive<\/strong>. Enterprise Value\/EBITDA is 10X, below the ten year average of 11X. Wells Fargo regularly produces the corresponding chart. This year, EBITDA has grown while stock prices have languished or dipped. Price performance bears little relationship to operating results, but the explanation lies mostly in the current fixation on growth stocks although that is starting to wobble. In our opinion, given the list of positives below, the sector should trade at a premium to long term valuations, not a discount (see\u00a0Getting Cheaper By Moving Sideways<\/a>).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Dividend yields of 5% are attractive and will become more so as the Fed continues to cut rates.<\/strong>\u00a0Not that many years ago, investors were drawn to midstream for the income. Easier monetary policy will help (see\u00a0MLP Yields Look Better Than Cash<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Dividends are well covered by Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) and are generally growing.<\/strong>\u00a0Gone are the days when the MLP structure dominated and 90% or more of DCF was paid out in distributions. Midstream companies today are mostly structured as c-corps, with lower payout ratios that make dividends more secure (see\u00a0Pipeline Earnings Or Cashflow?<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Balance sheet leverage has been declining for years and is now generally 3-3.5X Debt\/EBITDA compared with the 4-5X that prevailed 5-10 years ago<\/strong>. Kinder Morgan even argued to rating agencies that their diverse businesses deserved a multiple of 5-6X, although few were convinced. The widespread adoption of lower leverage targets has lowered the sector\u2019s correlation with energy prices. It\u2019s no longer the case that oil drags pipelines lower. Last year was a perfect example, with strong midstream performance coinciding with a bear market in crude (see\u00a0Picking The Top Pipeline<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. Companies such as Cheniere are buying back stock \u2014 $1BN in 3Q25 and an additional $300MM in October.<\/strong>\u00a0Buybacks have become increasingly common as a way to return cash to shareholders \u2013 very different from the old MLP model that routinely did secondary offerings to finance growth projects. Targa Resources, Enterprise Products Partners, MPLX and Oneok are among those that have repurchased shares this year (see\u00a0Notes From The Midstream Industry Conference<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. Exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) continue to grow, currently around 15 Billion Cubic feet per day (BCF\/D) and likely to reach 30 BCF\/D by 2030<\/strong>. Because LNG export terminals take years to build, it\u2019s possible to project out the annual increases in capacity. LNG trade is growing much faster than inter-regional pipeline connections because of the flexibility it allows both consumer and supplier. The US is the world\u2019s biggest exporter of LNG (see\u00a0LNG Keeps Growing<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    6. Power demand from data centers is driving domestic natural gas demand higher, since gas provides quick, reliable electricity.<\/strong>\u00a0Behind the meter solutions which rely on a dedicated power plant and avoid the grid are increasingly popular. Nuclear remains a long term solution but is more costly and still many years away (see\u00a0Bullish News On Gas<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    7. Oil and gas production reached new records in August, the most recent data available due to the government shutdown<\/strong>. It\u2019s especially hard to reconcile this year\u2019s weakness in pipelines with the volume growth in hydrocarbon output. AI stocks have been exciting, but we find steadily growing cashflows preferable (see\u00a0Why Lower Oil Prices Will Boost Natural Gas<\/a>).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently forecast growing global oil and gas consumption for 25 years, more realistic and positive than prior forecasts<\/strong>. In recent years the IEA became a left-wing cheerleader for renewables. They moved away from objective forecasts, and as a result their work became less useful. Although Executive Director Fatih Biroh claims that their recent more positive outlook doesn\u2019t reflect a change in philosophy, I just don\u2019t believe him. The US quite rightly threatened to pull its funding which is 14% of the IEA\u2019s budget. It helped. (see\u00a0Drama-Free Energy Stocks<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. It is the White House\u2019s favorite sector \u2014 Trump routinely seeks increased US energy exports as a solution to bilateral trade deficits<\/strong>. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was a great choice. Industry satisfaction with the improved regulatory environment is only tempered by the softer oil prices that have followed. Trump\u2019s policies are designed to produce lower gasoline prices. Energy executives are unlikely to vote Democrat, and the higher volumes are clearly good for midstream if less so for E&P companies. (see\u00a0Midstream Is Better Under Trump 2.0<\/a>).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        We could have added seasonals \u2013 for years MLPs have followed a pattern of strong performance early in the year (see The MLP Yuletide Spirit<\/a>). Pipeline c-corps are less responsive to the calendar, but it remains the case that purchases made late in the year are generally done at better prices than those done in the new year. There are eleven reasons to invest in pipelines today, and probably more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Originally Posted November 21, 2025 – Ten Reasons To Consider Buying Midstream Now
        <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Last week an investor asked us for ten reasons why they should commit funds to midstream energy infrastructure now. Typically, three or four bullet points will suffice to make the case, but in this case the request was for ten. Believe it or not, we were up to the challenge!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":222446,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13626],"class_list":{"0":"post-234954","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-sl-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTen Reasons To Consider Buying Midstream Now<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Last week an investor asked us for ten reasons why they should commit funds to midstream energy infrastructure now. 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