{"id":234861,"date":"2025-11-20T10:14:03","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T15:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234861"},"modified":"2025-11-21T04:47:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T09:47:01","slug":"chart-advisor-concerns-sure-recession-maybe-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-concerns-sure-recession-maybe-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Concerns? Sure. Recession? Maybe not\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0C. Theodore Hicks II, CMT, CFP, CKA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Building Permits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Schannep Recession Indicator<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/\u00a0Chicago Fed \u2013 Financial Conditions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ COPX<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Building Permits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are so many ugly equity charts, I\u2019m going to show a few economic charts. The first one is one of my biggest concerns, from an economic perspective. This first chart is Building Permits. Housing and building is such an important component of the economy, when we see such a strong negative trend, it\u2019s not a good sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The black line on the chart, that\u2019s where I was hoping building permits would find support. But it has fallen through that level in fairly dramatic fashion. If the Fed lowers rates next month \u2013 IF \u2013 then I would hope this trend changes shortly thereafter. But for now, this is a macro-economic concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Schannep Recession Indicator<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the things I love about the technical community is how open most of us are to sharing. A year or two ago, a fellow CMT Charterholder shared this indicator with me. I had never heard of the Schannep Recession Indicator. But, take a look at that chart and you\u2019ll see it\u2019s pretty accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the top pane, we have the unemployment rate. The bottom pane is the Schannep Recession Indicator. I honestly do not know how it is calculated, but I shared the calculation with my friends at Optuma and they programed the chart for me. Team work!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line, when the indicator (green line in the bottom pane) rises above the 0.40 level, a recession is (historically) at hand. Scan that chart and you\u2019ll see it\u2019s pretty accurate. Now notice the red arrow. In May of 2024, the indicator flashed the recession sign. It has since fallen back below. Perhaps we\u2019re in the clear now, but perhaps this helps to explain the underlying weakness of so many stocks?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chicago Fed \u2013 Financial Conditions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This next chart comes from the Chicago Federal Reserve. This is the Financial Conditions Credit Subindex. This index usually rises as a recession approaches. This chart is also\u00a0not<\/strong>\u00a0flashing recession warning signs as it is below the zero line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

COPX<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watching the price of copper is another habit of mine as I assess the economy. Unfortunately, something goofy happened to my chart so I\u2019m a little blind on that one at the moment. But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s take a look at COPX, the Global X Copper Miners ETF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While this minor pullback might be over, just in case it\u2019s not, I want to look for other opportunities as we are unconstrained. By that I mean, if we want to be heavily invested in one sector, our Investment Policy Statement allows us that latitude. Therefore, if most of the equities are in the tank, I want to look for something that is in a positive trend. At the moment, COPX looks worthy of watching. We would not buy it here, but it looks like it is building out a base that could create a nice buyable pivot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 20th November 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0C. Theodore Hicks II, CMT, CFP, CKA 1\/\u00a0Building Permits 2\/ Schannep Recession Indicator 3\/\u00a0Chicago Fed \u2013 Financial Conditions 4\/ COPX Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":234864,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[11784],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-234861","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-copx","18":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Concerns? Sure. Recession? 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