{"id":234700,"date":"2025-11-19T14:51:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T19:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234700"},"modified":"2025-11-19T18:13:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T23:13:07","slug":"forecast-china-rate-expectations-tomorrows-trade-ideas-nov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-china-rate-expectations-tomorrows-trade-ideas-nov\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: China Rate Expectations, Tomorrow\u2019s Trade Ideas: Nov. 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Chinese central bank is largely expected to keep rates unchanged at its November meeting. It would mark the sixth consecutive month of pauses, as officials in Beijing are likely to resort to fiscal measures rather than monetary to stimulate activity in the world\u2019s second-largest economy. Members of the institution have signaled reduced dovishness and have been maintaining a neutral posture on the bank&#8217;s benchmark. Our IBKR ForecastTrader prediction market points to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796603930%7C20251119%7C2%7CNovember%2020,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">90%<\/a> odds of a hold with over 1k contracts open that are tied to tonight\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"159\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-8-1100x159.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234702 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-8-1100x159.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-8-700x101.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-8-300x43.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-8-768x111.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-8.jpg 1263w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/159;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"572\" height=\"451\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture2-8.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234703 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture2-8.jpg 572w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture2-8-300x237.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 572px) 100vw, 572px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 572px; aspect-ratio: 572\/451;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-team-no-at-2-5-for-tomorrow-s-wei\"><strong>\u201cTeam No\u201d at 2.5% For Tomorrow\u2019s WEI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Real-time measures of economic conditions point to a short-term deceleration, driven mainly by the adverse effects of the government shutdown, but also due to tired consumers and stock market volatility that is capping personal expenditures. The average figure in the fourth quarter thus far is 2.2% and the trend has been lower. My analysis supports my belief that the \u201cNo\u201d contract at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=813720010%7C20251120%7C2.5%7CNovember%2015,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.5%<\/a> is undervalued at $0.75, as it\u2019s a level that has only been exceeded a handful of times in the second half of the year. Additionally, I see value at the 2.6% threshold as well; it\u2019s going for $0.93.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"635\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-10-1100x635.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234704 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-10-1100x635.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-10-700x404.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-10-300x173.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-10-768x443.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-10.jpg 1415w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/635;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"453\" height=\"537\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture4-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234711 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 453px; aspect-ratio: 453\/537;width:453px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture4-5.jpg 453w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture4-5-300x356.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hong-kong-s-cpi-is-volatile\"><strong>Hong Kong\u2019s CPI Is Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is volatile, and it has been trending lower, and has fallen to a yearly low of 1% in July. The median expectation for tomorrow\u2019s print is at 1.2%, but in a Reuters poll consisting of eight forecasters, estimates range from 0.9% to 1.5%. My projection is 1.1% and due to the indicator\u2019s wild swings, I find value at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20251120%7C1%7COctober%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1%<\/a> \u201cNo\u201d, which is costing $0.09. The trade delivers a profit on a figure of 1% or lower, and I think the pricing should be closer to $0.23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1584\" height=\"169\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234712 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4.jpg 1584w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4-700x75.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4-1100x117.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4-300x32.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4-768x82.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-4-1536x164.jpg 1536w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1584px) 100vw, 1584px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1584px; aspect-ratio: 1584\/169;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-team-yes-on-japan-cpi\"><strong>\u201cTeam Yes\u201d on Japan CPI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan\u2019s CPI is expected to increase to 112.3 from 112 in September and because I don\u2019t envision a steady number or a decline, I see value at the \u201cYes\u201d contracts from 110.4 to 112; they\u2019re ranging in price from $0.62 to $0.93.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"117\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3-1100x117.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234706 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3-1100x117.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3-700x75.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3-300x32.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3-768x82.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3-1536x164.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-3.jpg 1584w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/117;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 19, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Chinese central bank is largely expected to keep rates unchanged at its November meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19494,3758,20817],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-234700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-hong-kong-cpi","tag-peoples-bank-of-china","tag-weekly-economic-index","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - 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