{"id":234607,"date":"2025-11-18T13:02:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T18:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234607"},"modified":"2025-11-19T05:14:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T10:14:24","slug":"forecast-4th-quarter-us-gdp-expectations-derailed-by-shutdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-4th-quarter-us-gdp-expectations-derailed-by-shutdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: 4th Quarter US GDP Expectations Derailed by Shutdown: Nov. 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The IBKR ForecastTrader platform expects economic growth in the current quarter to be much weaker than it was earlier in the year, as the 43-day-long government shutdown&#8211;the longest in history&#8211;a softening consumer and market volatility dent GDP. Indeed, the 50-50 likelihood for the October-December time period calls for growth of only around 0.8%, assigning a 55% chance of a number north of 0.5% and a 52% probability of a figure failing to exceed 1%. Additionally, there\u2019s a 35% chance that the result won\u2019t exceed 0%. For comparison purposes and to illustrate the degree of the projected deceleration, second quarter GDP grew 3.8% and the three-month period ended in September is expected grow more than 3.1% with a 56% degree of confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"126\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-FT-1100x126.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234613 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-FT-1100x126.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-FT-700x80.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-FT-300x34.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-FT-768x88.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture1-FT.jpg 1260w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/126;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"547\" height=\"737\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture2-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234614 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture2-7.jpg 547w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture2-7-300x404.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 547px) 100vw, 547px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 547px; aspect-ratio: 547\/737;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-look-at-third-quarter-expectations\"><strong>A Look At Third Quarter Expectations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"115\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-9-1100x115.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234615 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-9-1100x115.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-9-700x73.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-9-300x31.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-9-768x80.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture3-9.jpg 1258w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/115;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"568\" height=\"722\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture4-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234616 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture4-3.jpg 568w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture4-3-300x381.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 568px; aspect-ratio: 568\/722;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-folks-give-up-on-a-50-from-the-fed\"><strong>Folks Give Up On a 50 From the Fed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent sessions we\u2019ve seen large trades executed on whether the Fed will reduce rates by 50 or more at its December meeting. With the committee contemplating a pause or a modest cut, folks have essentially given up on a super-sized reduction. There are roughly 81k contracts open that are tied to next month\u2019s decision. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"569\" height=\"510\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-fed-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-234618 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-fed-1.jpg 569w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Picture5-fed-1-300x269.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 569px) 100vw, 569px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 569px; aspect-ratio: 569\/510;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 18, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IBKR ForecastTrader platform expects economic growth in the current quarter to be much weaker than it was earlier in the year, as the 43 day-long government shutdown&#8211;the longest in history&#8211;a softening consumer and market volatility dent GDP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":224820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-234607","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast: 4th Quarter US 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