{"id":234527,"date":"2025-11-17T12:51:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T17:51:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234527"},"modified":"2025-11-18T04:08:21","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T09:08:21","slug":"forecast-a-fed-pause-in-december-traded-at-56-over-the-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-a-fed-pause-in-december-traded-at-56-over-the-weekend\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: A Fed Pause in December Traded At 56% Over the Weekend: Nov. 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The probability of the Fed pausing in December reached a fresh high of 56% on Saturday, during an active trading weekend. The odds have shifted materially after a series of speakers from the central bank voiced worries about inflation that have risen in recent months. The heavier cost forces influenced skepticism that a reduction next month would be prudent in light of a 3-handle on the Consumer Price Index. Indeed, the chance of a hold rose from just 30% last Wednesday to north of 50%<\/a> on Friday. Approximately 61,000 contracts are open that are tied to the final US rate decision of 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Forecasters Are Bullish Stocks, Bearish Crypto<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other contracts with strong interest in recent days have been whether the Democratic Party will win a majority<\/a> in the House next year, futures prices on the S&P 500,<\/a> Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial indices, and Bitcoin as well as Ethereum. Investors are expecting higher stocks by year-end, according to current pricing, but that same confidence isn\u2019t extending to crypto, with just 47% odds that Bitcoin will finish 2025 above 95k; it traded close to 96k earlier today. Separately, the likelihood of a flip in the lower chamber of Congress remains at an elevated 67%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Trade Idea for Tomorrow<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail gasoline prices fell slightly last week, according to futures in real-time exchanges as well as the closely tied crude oil commodity, of which fuel is a derivative of. Futures are down by 2.1% and 0.5% across both of the critical supplies, signaling that we should see a number around $3.03, lighter than the previously reported $3.056. In light of the circumstances, the \u201cNo\u201d contracts at $3.10<\/a>, $3,20 and $3.30 offer favorable risk-reward profiles, in my opinion, since I\u2019m forecasting a decreasing figure. And the \u201cYes\u201d at $2.90 appears safe too, since a 5.1% weekly plunge isn\u2019t in the cards from my perspective. The four distinct thresholds are ranging from $0.90 to $0.96 in cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 17, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The probability of the Fed pausing in December reached a fresh high of 56% on Saturday, during an active trading weekend. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":217987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-234527","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast: A Fed Pause in December Traded At 56% Over the Weekend: Nov. 17, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/american-flag-fed-featured-img-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/217987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234527"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=234527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}