{"id":234374,"date":"2025-11-13T12:57:21","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T17:57:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234374"},"modified":"2025-11-13T17:32:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T22:32:38","slug":"forecast-idea-tomorrows-spanish-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-idea-tomorrows-spanish-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Idea: Tomorrow\u2019s Spanish CPI: Nov. 13, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Forecast Idea: Tomorrow\u2019s Spanish CPI: Nov. 13, 2025 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s Spanish Consumer Price Index (CPI) is quite predictable, since the preliminary <\/em>version<\/a>, released on Halloween by Eurostat, signaled a 0.5% month-over-month (m\/m) increase that landed the indicator at 119.08 last month, up from September\u2019s 118.49. Historically, the report maintains a subdued deviation rate, meaning that the final number doesn’t typically change much from the initial. Against this backdrop, it\u2019s almost impossible in my opinion for the +0.5% to be revised to unchanged, which is what\u2019s required for the \u201cYes\u201d at 118.5 to lose money. Furthermore, a highly unlikely upgrade to +0.9% is needed for the \u201cNo\u201d at 119.5<\/a> to fail to reach profitability. Overall, I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 118 and 118.5 as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at 119.5, 120, 120.5 and 121 attractive. The thresholds are ranging from $0.84 to $0.96 in cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 13, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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118.49.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214827,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[998],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-234374","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-spain","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast Idea: Tomorrow\u2019s Spanish CPI: Nov. 13, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tomorrow\u2019s Spanish Consumer Price Index (CPI) is quite predictable, 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