{"id":234296,"date":"2025-11-12T11:53:57","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T16:53:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234296"},"modified":"2025-11-12T11:58:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T16:58:13","slug":"will-the-government-reopening-spark-a-market-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/will-the-government-reopening-spark-a-market-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Government Reopening Spark a Market Rally?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Join Jeff Praissman, host of the Interactive Brokers Podcast, and Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy as they break down the market\u2019s reaction to the government reopening. Will delayed economic data trigger a rally or reveal deeper risks for traders?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Will the Government Reopening Spark a Market Rally?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=d6kbq-19bf119-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-318\"><strong>Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 318<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with the Interactive Brokers Podcast. It\u2019s my pleasure to welcome back Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great, Jeff. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-0\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m doing well, and I appreciate you swinging by the studio as you do a couple of Wednesdays a month for our five-minute market recap.&nbsp;There\u2019s a lot going on, right? And as always, hopefully with an end in sight now that the Senate has passed the spending package. How are the markets handling this government shutdown, which has been the longest on record? With this new news we got\u2014what was it, yesterday or the day before\u2014are they expecting it to be over soon, or are they still hesitant?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-0\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To me, it really looks like traders and the marketplace overall are looking beyond this at this point. Yes, it will be over\u2014whether it\u2019s in the next couple of days or next week. And now that earnings season has pretty much come to an end, the focus is squarely on rates, the bond market, and what the Fed is going to do. So yes, I do think the market is already pricing in that the shutdown is behind us\u2014again, whether that happens in the next day or two or next week. Now, they\u2019re really looking ahead at the data points we\u2019ve missed and how that can affect the Fed in December.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-1\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That leads me perfectly to my next question. Obviously, in the news\u2014and as it should be\u2014a lot of the focus is on people not getting paychecks or aid that they need. And again, without being political, that\u2019s absolutely hugely important. But I think what a lot of times maybe Main Street doesn\u2019t quite know or see is that when the government reopens, we\u2019re going to get a barrage of economic data released. In the meantime, economists are turning to other sources, like the ADP report, which indicated a loss of\u2014I think it was 11,000 jobs in the private sector.&nbsp;Do you think we\u2019re going to get a big move in the market either way? Could we get a big move positively if the government reports are better, or negatively if the reports are worse? What\u2019s the feeling on that by the general market?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-1\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think the market is looking at this and expecting some fairly sobering economic data coming out. I think we\u2019re expecting the worst\u2014maybe even a loss of jobs. I know that whenever the October non-farm payrolls come out, whether it happens this week or next week, the expectation is actually for a loss of 60,000 jobs. Goldman just came out and said they expect it to be 50,000. I think the data across the board is not likely to be what we would consider positive. But I see the market kind of pricing that in\u2014I really do. So unless it\u2019s really off-the-charts negative, I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see a big negative reaction in the marketplace.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-2\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So almost, if anything, if it does beat expectations, then we could actually get another huge bump?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-2\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I really think that\u2019s the case here. I think that\u2019s what we\u2019re setting up for. Just because\u2014I don\u2019t want to say the expectation is gloom and doom\u2014but the expectations are for some pretty poor numbers out there.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-3\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And I want to switch gears a little bit. How has the dollar held up over the past week, and where do you think it\u2019s heading?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-3\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, we rallied to the highest point we\u2019ve seen since basically the end of July. It has edged lower a little bit over the last few days. And really, it\u2019s coinciding now with expectations for what the Fed is going to do in December. With that probability\u2014I think on the CME FedWatch tool\u2014it\u2019s now down to about 61\u201362%. So we\u2019re seeing the dollar back off a little bit. Overall though, Jeff, we\u2019ve seen this incredible run back up from where we were, and now there\u2019s just a little unrest. There\u2019s some uncertainty that\u2019s keeping the dollar hovering around that magic spot of 100 or 1. I think the main driver of what happens over the next few weeks is what we see in relation to the 10-year auction and how that may affect what the Fed might do\u2014and obviously all the data that\u2019s coming out over the next several weeks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-4\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Got it. And Scott, I feel like we can\u2019t go a podcast without talking about either AI or tariffs\u2014or both. So I\u2019ve got to ask: Is the market following the Supreme Court and the potential impact on whether Trump\u2019s tariffs are legal or not? Or is it again a case where everyone\u2019s just kind of \u201cit is what it is\u201d and we\u2019ll ride with it either way?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-4\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I do think when I talk to traders on the floor, it\u2019s \u201cit is what it is.\u201d But when you look a little deeper\u2014and boy, a year ago we probably would\u2019ve never used this\u2014when I look at Kalshi, they\u2019re saying that right now there\u2019s only slightly over a 20% chance that the Supreme Court is going to uphold the tariffs. So considering how brutal that selloff was back in April when the tariffs were first announced, we could see a positive reaction if that happens. I would be a little cautious though. I don\u2019t think the answer is quite so simple here because the bottom line is the economic impact of these tariffs is still largely unknown. Was it overstated? Is it understated? So I think the initial reaction would be a little bit of a buy in the marketplace\u2014not sure I would necessarily buy into that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-5\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, I agree. And it\u2019s funny you mention Kalshi because obviously we have our Forecast Trader contracts as well. Without going too much on a tangent, that sector\u2019s really grown as far as the market using it as market data too.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, this has been great. Love you coming by for our Wednesday chats, and we\u2019ll see you next week. For our listeners, you can get more from Scott at prospertradingacademy.com. You can also visit our website to see past podcasts, articles, and more. Thanks again, Scott.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-5\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you, Jeff.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Join Jeff Praissman, host of the Interactive Brokers Podcast, and Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy as they break down the market\u2019s reaction to the government reopening. Will delayed economic data trigger a rally or reveal deeper risks for traders?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":234297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[1601,3221,446,18159,15995,850,1480,19392,11838,199,3612],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-234296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-dollar-index","tag-economic-data","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-podcast","tag-government-shutdown","tag-interest-rates","tag-market-rally","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-stock-market-outlook","tag-tariffs","tag-trading-strategy","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will the Government Reopening Spark a Market Rally?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Join Jeff Praissman, host of the Interactive Brokers Podcast, and Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy as they break down the market\u2019s reaction to...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234296\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the Government Reopening Spark a Market Rally? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Join Jeff Praissman, host of the Interactive Brokers Podcast, and Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy as they break down the market\u2019s reaction to the government reopening. 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