{"id":234106,"date":"2025-11-07T12:46:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T17:46:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=234106"},"modified":"2025-11-07T13:27:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T18:27:27","slug":"forecast-trade-for-umich-consumer-sentiment-revision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-trade-for-umich-consumer-sentiment-revision\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trade for UMich Consumer Sentiment Revision: Nov. 7, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This morning\u2019s initial Consumer Sentiment figure of 50.3 from the University of Michigan will be revised on Nov. 21 and in consideration of the historical differences between the preliminary and final versions, the \u201cNos\u201d offer favorable risk-reward profiles, in my opinion. Indeed, the absolute average and median changes since October 2015 have been a modest 0.95 and 0.70, while the maximum and minimum adjustments across the time period are +3.1 and -6.8. The \u201cNos”<\/a> from 52 to 64 range in cost from $0.43 to $0.96 and would all result profitable on an unlikely adjustment as high as +1.7, or anything lower. We haven\u2019t seen a jump of that magnitude in 16 months, since July 2024\u2019s +2.6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 7, 2025.<\/em> Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This morning\u2019s initial Consumer Sentiment figure of 50.3 from the University of Michigan will be revised on Nov. 21 and in consideration of the historical differences between the preliminary and final versions, the \u201cNos\u201d offer favorable risk-reward profiles, in my opinion. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":221991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-234106","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-consumer-sentiment","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast Trade for UMich Consumer Sentiment Revision: Nov. 7, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This morning\u2019s initial Consumer Sentiment figure of 50.3 from 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