{"id":233978,"date":"2025-11-05T13:11:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T18:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233978"},"modified":"2025-11-05T14:57:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T19:57:37","slug":"ibkr-forecasttrader-volume-set-year-to-date-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-forecasttrader-volume-set-year-to-date-record\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Volumes Surged to 12.68 Million On Election Day: Nov. 5, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Our forecast contract volumes rose to a fresh year-to-date high of 12.68 million during yesterday\u2019s elections as investors rushed to place orders ahead of races being called. Transactions are more muted today at around 7 million following the announced winners, which our prediction market reflected elevated odds for, essentially calling the results days before. Indeed, this modern market mechanism is successfully doing its job in signaling the victors prior to the known results, in similar fashion as the Presidential Election of 2024. Our odds signaled overwhelming success for the democratic party in the 2025 elections and that\u2019s exactly what happened. And while anecdotal evidence pointed to Cuomo potentially puling an upset due to the demographics of early voters, or a narrowing lead where Ciattarelli may have been New Jersey\u2019s next governor surfaced, our chances remained heavily in support of the favorites. Looking forward, however, last night\u2019s performance and the passing of Proposition 50 in California raised the likelihood of a flip in the majority control of the House; the probability is up to 69% from 58% just a few hours ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Sliwa Should Have Dropped Out?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
With Mamdani capturing 50.4% of the votes, Cuomo 41.6% and Sliwa 7.1%, there\u2019s no denying that if the GOP candidate would have dropped out, the former state governor would have had a much better shot at winning. The 1.7% differential (50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1) could have been covered by a united front against the Democratic Party candidate and increased participation driven by better perceived odds of victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Power of Prediction Markets<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
As voters flocked to the polls in the New York City mayoral race yesterday, election commentators began to opine alongside anecdotal evidence that former governor Andrew Cuomo\u2019s chances of a surprise victory over frontrunner Zohran Mamdani were improving, a result of a strong early turnout by elderly Democrats that tend to have a much more moderate profile. The IBKR ForecastTrader prediction market, however, continued to show that Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, was strongly favored to win, with his chances dropping to a low of 87% yesterday. The results, along with the accurate ForecastTrader predictions of gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia by Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, illustrate how the IBKR ForecastTrader platform can be a powerful tool for assessing election outcomes. As of yesterday, ForecastTrader had placed 82% and 97% chances that Sherrill and Spanberger would succeed, alongside a 98% chance that Proposition 50 would pass in California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The power of the IBKR ForecastTrader as a predictive market isn\u2019t limited to elections. Since the platform\u2019s launch in August 2024, it has frequently priced the possibilities of outcomes related to economic data, capital market performance, fiscal policy decisions, Federal Reserve actions and environment developments accurately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trade Idea That Expires Tomorrow<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index is likely to remain range bound tomorrow as recent indicators don\u2019t point to a significant acceleration or deceleration in activity. The risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 1.4%, 1.6% and 1.8% appear attractive at $0.96, $0.92 and $0.84, and the same is true, in my opinion, for the \u201cNos\u201d at 2.6% and 2.8%, which are priced at $0.92 and $0.96. The five thresholds have only been breached a handful of times this year as you can see from the chart below. A 0.2% weekly drop or a 0.61% climb is required for this combination trade to lose money, which is an extremely narrow path in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Banxico Expected to Cut<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting with a 90% degree of confidence. The other option on the table is to keep the level steady, while hiking or a deeper cut is off the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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