{"id":233858,"date":"2025-11-03T12:37:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T17:37:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233858"},"modified":"2025-11-03T14:58:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T19:58:36","slug":"election-update-trade-idea-for-us-gas-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/election-update-trade-idea-for-us-gas-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Update, Trade Idea for US Gas Prices: Nov. 3, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite millions of contracts being traded over the weekend, the probabilities across candidates of the mayoral race in New York City and the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia have remained relatively unchanged. Indeed, Mamdani is at 92%<\/a>, Sherrill at 83%<\/a> and Spanberger is at 94%<\/a> as we approach tomorrow\u2019s elections. Trading has been incredibly active throughout the events, with approximately 15.1 million, 2.4 million and 799k contracts currently open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

US Gas Prices >$2.90 Tomorrow<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Real-time measures of gasoline prices advanced last week and tomorrow\u2019s update from the Energy Information Administration is likely to reflect that. Indeed, costs probably increased from $3.035 to $3.06 on a seven-day basis, according to my estimate. But the $2.90 threshold is almost impossible to slip to, requiring a 4.4% weekly fall during a period in which charges rose. For that reason, the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at $2.90 is undervalued at $0.95 in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 3, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite millions of contracts being traded over the weekend, the probabilities across candidates of the mayoral race in New York City and the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia have remained relatively 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